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Despite this article becoming out of date in less than twenty-four hours, I figured I'd better give the whole world my predictions for the festivities on Sunday at 8. (Everybody's watching, right?) I'll post a reaction article maybe the day after, if I get most of my work done in time. So without further ado, let's get right to it:
BEST PICTURE:
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
This is the year. All three films have been nominated, this is the best one, monumental effort, all that jazz. While, like any fan, I'm deathly scared that something crazy might happen to dethrone the King, no other film jumps out as a sure second-placer biting at the heels. Mystic River, Master and Commander, and Seabiscuit will all split unless the Academy has secretly rallied behind one film, and the vast praise for Lost in Translation simply probably won't translate into enough votes. Which leaves the hobbits victorious.
RANKED IN ORDER OF PROBABILITY:
1. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2. Mystic River
3. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
4. Lost in Translation
5. Seabiscuit
BEST DIRECTOR:
PETER JACKSON, THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
For the same reasons as above. Everybody seems to be showing Sofia Coppola the love this year as well, but the reasoning will be that she's young enough to have plenty of chances later on. Clint Eastwood and Peter Weir will most likely split, while Fernando Meirelles' of City of God might fly under the radar (although have you seen it? It's AMAZING). But never underestimate the Academy's possibility of surprising us. While it's hard to chose a second place here as well, I'll go with the off kilter:
1. Peter Jackson
2. Fernando Meirelles
3. Peter Weir
4. Clint Eastwood
5. Sofia Coppola
BEST ACTOR:
SEAN PENN, MYSTIC RIVER
Bill Murray's been gaining a lot of buzz since the Golden Globes, and it's definitely a race between Penn and Murray (with crowd-pleasing Depp lurking somewhere in the background). I still think it will be Penn though - after plenty of previous nominations, he's "owed", and his work in Mystic River is said to be fantastic (don't worry, I'll see it really soon). Plus, his great performance in 21 Grams as well gives him a popular year. I think he has it over the Academy-newcomer Bill Murray (who should've been nominated for Groundhog Day and Rushmore at the very least anyway, but wasn't). Ben Kingsley and Jude Law don't seem to have buzz in their favor. But watch out for Depp one-upping both frontrunners - unlikely but possible.
1. Sean Penn
2. Bill Murray
3. Johnny Depp
4. Jude Law
5. Ben Kingsley
BEST ACTRESS:
CHARLIZE THERON, MONSTER
Although there's an outspoken minority backlashing against Theron's performance, calling it a "stunt" (screw off, it was spectacular) the general mindset is that she'll win. She brought to life a real serial killer (Aileen Wurnos) with fierce intensity and surprising insight. The second-place runner here seems to be Diane Keaton, whom the Academy will award if they're feeling particularly snobby. For some reason, though, I just don't buy that. Maybe I'm way wrong, but I don't think she has a bit of a chance (watch me eat my words) - it's a comedic role, she's already one, there's not much depth. That leaves Keisha Castle-Hughes, Naomi Watts, and Samantha Morton. Morton and Castle-Hughes have a good chance of coming out of nowhere to take this one (Watts was only 1/3 of a great cast and her movie, 21 Grams, only made seven million) but many voters will argue that Castle-Hughes is too young. While I highly doubt this will happen, if there's a from-out-of-nowhere win, it'll most likely be Morton.
1. Charlize Theron
2. Samantha Morton
3. Keisha Castle-Hughes
4. Diane Keaton
5. Naomi Watts
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
TIM ROBBINS, MYSTIC RIVER
The simple fact is that no one else seems to stand out far enough to give "the best part of Mystic River" a run for his money. Which is precisely why I'm suspicious that he's not as sure a thing as we're meant to believe. I'd be crazy not to predict him (rule #1: what most people predict is usually right) but then again (rule #2: the key word being "usually") there's Alec Baldwin (too not respected, little-seen movie), Ken Watanabe (the movie's reception was too split), Benicio Del Toro (my personal favorite, but he's already won and 21 Grams only made seven million), and Djimon Hounsou (hmm…) Sure, there's plenty of reasons for Hounsou (from In America) not to win - the part might not be big enough, the movie might not be popular enough - but they all seem like kind of stretches. If he came out of nowhere to get a nomination when everyone thought he wouldn't, what's stopping him from coming out of nowhere to win?
1. Tim Robbins
2. Djimon Hounsou
3. Ken Watanabe
4. Benicio Del-Toro
5. Alec Baldwin
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
RENEE ZELLWEGER, COLD MOUNTAIN
You could make a good case for House of Sand and Fog's Shohreh Aghdashloo. She's the critical favorite, it's her English-speaking film debut, Cold Mountain didn't get as much love as everyone was expecting. But then again…Renee Zellweger's been nominated the two pervious years. She jolted Cold Mountain with the life many people thought it was lacking. She's owed. She's a star who scruffied herself up. She'll win. (Oh yeah, the other nominees: Patricia Clarkson for Pieces of April and Holly Hunter for Thirteen don't seem to have much of a chance, and the fact that Marcia Gay Harden pulled an upset a few years ago over Kate Hudson is probably why she won't pull one this year.)
1. Renee Zellweger
2. Shohreh Aghdashloo
3. Marcia Gay Harden
4. Patricia Clarkson
5. Holly Hunter
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Ah yes, the perfect category to award the most critically praised film of the year. In America is the competition, but I see this race as a sure thing for Lost in Translation. I can't think of one good reason why it wouldn't win...some Academy members have been vocal about not liking it, but if it got itself a Best Picture nomination, it must have a pretty strong backing. The Barbarian Invasions (which actually has an extremely far but legitimate shot), Dirty Pretty Things (which I still don't know anything about, so it better not surprise and make me look like an idiot) and Finding Nemo (which, despite being loved way more than I think it should be - it was good guys, not great - has the handicap of being a cartoon) all probably won't get enough votes.
1. Lost in Translation
2. In America
3. The Barbarian Invasions
4. Dirty Pretty Things
5. Finding Nemo
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
MYSTIC RIVER
A complicated race here, although I'm fairly sure that Mystic River will walk away with the award. The stubborn Academy members will probably reason 100% falsely that, since it was a fantasy movie that had tons of special effects, the screenplay itself probably wasn't that and, working from Tolkien, wasn't that hard. (Trust me, a lot of people have that mindset, and you're all wrong). Mystic River represents everything the Academy loves, and since they'll most likely hand Return of the King the big win, they'll console themselves by honoring Mystic River here. (It's by a respected veteran, too: Brian Helgeland wrote and won for L.A. Confidential in 1997.) As for other possibilities, City of God might be seen as a more style-over-substance affair, although since it got this nomination, never underestimate it. American Splendor was a fantastic script and a wildly praised (if under-seen) movie that also has the chance to upset. And with so many strong candidates here, I strongly believe Seabiscuit will be left out to Sea. Sorry, couldn't resist.
1. Mystic River
2. American Splendor
3. City of God
4. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
5. Seabiscuit
As for the rest...
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
1. FINDING NEMO
2. The Triplets of Belleville
3. Brother Bear
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM:
1. THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
2. The Twilight Samurai
3. Evil
4. Twin Sisters
5. Zelary
BEST ART DIRECTION:
1. THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
2. The Last Samurai
3. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
4. Seabiscuit
5. Girl with a Pearl Earring
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
1. MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
2. City of God
3. Cold Mountain
4. Seabiscuit
5. Girl with a Pearl Earring
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
1. THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
2. The Last Samurai
3. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
4. Girl with a Pearl Earring
5. Seabiscuit
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
1. THE FOG OF WAR
2. Capturing the Friedmans
3. My Architect
4. The Weather Underground
5. Balseros
BEST DOCUMENTARY - SHORT SUBJECT:
1. CHERNOBYL HEART
2. Ferry Tales
3. Asylum
BEST FILM EDITING:
1. CITY OF GOD
2. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
3. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
4. Seabiscuit
5. Cold Mountain
BEST MAKEUP:
1. THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
2. Pirates of the Caribbean
3. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
1. THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
2. Cold Mountain
3. Finding Nemo
4. House of Sand and Fog
5. Big Fish
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
1. THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
2. Cold Mountain (the Sting one)
3. Cold Mountain (the other one)
4. A Mighty Wind
5. The Triplets of Belleville
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
1. DESTINO
2. Harvie Krumpet
3. Nibbles
4. Boundin'
5. Gone Nutty
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT:
1. TWO SOLDIERS
2. Most (The Bridge)
3. Squash
4. (A) Torzija ( (A) Torsion )
5. Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
BEST SOUND:
1. THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
2. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
3. Pirates of the Caribbean
4. The Last Samurai
5. Seabiscuit
BEST SOUND EDITING:
1. MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
2. Pirates of the Caribbean
3. Finding Nemo
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
1. THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
2. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
3. Pirates of the Caribbean
TALLY:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: 9 (2 Major)
Mystic River: 3 (3 Major)
Master and Commander: 2
Lost in Translation: 1 (1 Major)
Monster: 1 (1 Major)
Cold Mountain: 1 (1 Major)
City of God: 1
The Barbarian Invasions: 1
Finding Nemo: 1
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