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First of all, a few awards groups have been busy nominating and awarding the 2004 films that are eligible for this year's Oscars. First there's the Independent Spirit Awards, a group dedicating to the recognizing of only independently made films. Their nominations were just announced; you can view the complete list here. The highlights? Garden State picks up nominations for Best First Feature and Best First Screenplay; other dominant films were Sideways with Paul Giamatti and indie favorite Maria Full of Grace, as well as The Woodsman, which stars Kevin Bacon as a former pedophile who tries to cope with life after prison. And just in case you noticed, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind didn't grab any nominations because it was ineligible (its budget was too high to qualify).
Then there's the National Board of Review. It isn't an exact science, but in very broad strokes, the NBR has tended to have the same opinions the Academy has in the past. It lists the ten best films of the year. This year:
So what does all this mean? I would argue that the Independent Spirit Awards don't mean a whole lot; the films that dominate there usually go on to only Oscar's Best Screenplay categories unless they're breakout successes (like Lost in Translation last year). But the fact that Sideways made both lists means that perhaps it's this year's indie to beat. Also high on the NBR list is Closer, which has been getting overall positive reviews, but at a smaller margin than they would probably feel comfortable with - and it looks like The Aviator will face a similar challenge from what the early reviews are saying. Jamie Foxx's Best Actor nomination for Ray is a complete lock, and many are predicting he'll win; his chances will only improve if Collateral turns out to be a hit with the Academy and he also gets nominated for Supporting.
As always, now that we're closer to the end of the year, the list of possible Best Picture nominees gets more refined. The massively negative critical reception (and mediocre at best box office reception) means Alexander is out of the major race as we know it. The list of Best Picture possibilities looks a little something like this:
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