Mini-Oscar Update:
I've got a few predictions and some noteworthy news for ya'll. First of all, two major films considered to be serious contenders have dropped out of the race, as distributor Miramax has pushed their release date to 2005. First, there's Proof, starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Anthony Hopkins, and based on the stageplay by David Auburn. It's an acting-heavy drama about the daughter of a mathematician, and what looked like a movie that could yield a lot of acting nominations will now be forgotten until next year.
The other movie is An Unfinished Life. Directed by Lasse Hallstrom (Chocolat, What's Eating Gilbert Grape, The Cidar House Rules), it stars Robert Redford, Morgan Freeman, and Jennifer Lopez. It's based on an acclaimed book by Mark Spragg, but has, in my opnion, a horrible title. No matter; we don't need to worry about it anymore.
Why the changes? Miramax recently downsized, letting go over fifty employees, so the fact of the matter is that they probably thought they didn't have enough money to give the Oscar campaigns that these films would have needed. They already have The Aviator and Finding Neverland on their plates, and I guess of the four they decided these two were expendable.
Also in recent news, the Toronto Film Festival took place. Usually, at this festival there's a few films that really jump out from under the radar and garner a lot of buzz - as one website put it, it has become the unofficial opening of the year's Oscar season. Last year, The Cooler and 21 Grams both received raves and buzz which led to oscar nominations for each, and Lost in Translation was a huge breakout star. However, there didn't seem to be any clear candidates after this one - sure, there were successes, but nothing on the level of a Lost in Translation. The focus this time seemed to be on a few noteworth performances. Included:
- Liam Neeson in Kinsey: Neeson stars as the real-life Alfred Kinsey, who stirred up controversy in the 1940s and 50s by being one of the first people to ever really research the sexual practices of modern Americans and by publishing the book "Sexual Behavior in the Human Male". Timothy Hutton, Chris O'Donnell, and critic-friendly Peter Sarsgaard (Shattered Glass, Garden State) co-star, as does Laura Linney, who generated a bit of buzz on her own as Kinsey's wife.
- Jamie Foxx in Ray: It looks like more and more of a lock that Foxx will be a Best Actor nominee. Starring in Collateral in August got critics to notice him, but this is apparently a real tour de force performance.
- Paul Giamatti in Sideways: The new comedy/drama from Alexander Payne (Election, About Schmidt) stars American Splendor star Paul Giamatti. He's gotten raves, but there's a question as to whether that will translate into an Academy Award nomination. On the one hand, Alexander Payne is friendly to the Academy, with nominations for both previous features; on the other hand, this is an indie, and Giamatti was snubbed last year for his performance in the indie American Splendor. What makes this time any different?
- Kevin Bacon in The Woodsman: He stars as a former pedophile who gets out of jail after 12 years and tries to make a new life for himself. He's gotten some good reviews, but for the movie as a whole, there haven't been many raves.
- Gael Garcia Bernal in The Motorcycle Diaries: Well, he could get nominated for this or Pedro Almodovar's Bad Education. He came to prominence playing as one of the boys (the other was Diego Luna) in Y Tu Mama Tambien. So far, he's gotten some great reviews for The Motorcycle Diaries, but some reception has been split - for example, Entertainment Weekly and the Village Voice both gave the movie withering reviews.
Anyway, enough of that. I also wanted to add that I've got four out of five Best Picture nominees already picked out (of which they will most definitely change over the course of the next few months, but what the heck). I'd say these are the four surest bets of the Oscar season. Of course, bad reviews or bombs at the box office could spell doom quickly on any one of these. Except, probably, the first one...
- The Aviator. A real no brainer. Add one of the finest directors in the world (Martin Scorsese) with a period-piece biopic of Howard Hughes, throw in some critic and award-friendly actors (Leonardo DiCaprio, Jude Law, Cate Blanchett) and you have Oscar nominations. Lots of them.
- Alexander. Sounds like a tough competitor, but then again, Troy flopped with critics...but then again, Oliver Stone usually doesn't disappoint when he directs a picture. Colin Farrell leads as the young conquerer, with a supporting cast that includes Angelina Jolie, Anthony Hopkins, Jared Leto, Val Kilmer, and Rosario Dawson. It will at least get a handful of tech noms, and I'm betting Director and Picture are up for nominations too (with an acting nod or two more than possible).
- Finding Neverland. Johnny Depp stars as Peter Pan creator J.M. Barrie along with Kate Winslet as a woman he closely befriends/marries/not quite sure. And in fact, one of the kids in it Depp recommended to Tim Burton to play Charlie in Burton and Depp's upcoming Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Anyway, it sounds like this will be a hit with critics, and since the movie is only PG, it has an advantage over most of the others in its possible broad appeal.
- Closer. Jude Law is about to become ridiculously overexposed, with six of his movies being released from Sept-Dec. But the Academy likes the guy, and in this he co-stars with impressive cast Julia Roberts, Clive Owen (King Arthur), and Natalie Portman. Everyone in their right mind is going to see this even if it's bad, since it promises Natalie Portman playing a stripper. But it's ace in the hole is that it's directed by Mike Nichols, who's hot hot hot after directing the universally acclaimed Angels in America for HBO. Plus, this is the guy who directed The Birdcage and The Graduate - he knows how to make a good movie.
Anyway, that's all for now. I'll tell you the important news as it develops. It's only when these films actually start opening, though, when we'll find out if they really hold as much water as we're being led to believe.
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[StrandedinManhattan.com]
[Oscar Columns]
