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So the nominations were announced, and like always I did far worse than I thought I would. This year especially. I thought I had all the surprises nailed. All the locks locked. But then, when the nominations were announced today by the president of the Academy and Sigourney Weaver, I was simply stunned by some of the nominees. So here's my complete commentary on every single category (well, at least every major category), why I predicted what I did, and what the long list of surprises were.
Actual Nominees:
Like I said last article, I was 95% sure that I had four out of five of the categories correct. The fifth slot on anything is always tricky, and there was always the possibility that Lost in Translation could come in and overtake either Cold Mountain, Seabiscuit, or Master and Commander. I didn't predict it myself because I had a hunch that the Academy didn't love it as much as the critics did, who normally fall head over heels in love for indies that the Academy more often than not don't go for. So I figured Cold Mountain, backed by the powerhouse Miramax, was a sure thing for just that reason over any independent. But I guess everybody decided that Cold Mountain just wasn't as good as Miramax tried to pump it up to be.
Actual Nominees:
Again, one off. If you're wondering who the heck Fernando Meirelles is, trust me, so am I, and so is everybody else. City of God was a critically acclaimed Brazilian film that opened in the U.S. very early in 2003. Everyone I know pretty much completely thought City of God was completely out of the race; not only was it wholeheartedly forgotten, it's a foreign film that barely anyone saw. Still, it is supposedly great, although unseen by me; apparently the Academy remembered and voted en force. Instead of Meirelles, I was predicting Jim Sheridan over the more heavily-hyped Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain) and Gary Ross (Seabiscuit), so in a sense I was right: I knew that they would favor a smaller film instead of the campaigning powerhouses, I just picked the wrong one. (Odd, then, that there was so much unexpected support for Sheridan's In America in a bunch of other categories. Figures.)
Actual Nominees:
One off once again, how exciting. Usually it's a mixture of 3/5s and 5/5s. Glad to see my Johnny Depp prediction paid off. But the Jude Law nomination still doesn't make sense to me. You decide you don't want to award Cold Mountain for much, you decide it's over-hyped and doesn't deserve Best Picture, and most of all you snub Nicole Kidman for Best Actress, but you DO nominate Jude Law for a far less showy performance? Okay dude, whatever. I assumed that Russell Crowe was locked since the Academy seemed to love him, he had a Golden Globe nomination, and his film had strong support…I should've realized that no SAG (Screen Actor's Guild) nomination was his kiss of death (although that doesn't make sense since Jude Law didn't get nominated for a SAG either). Oh well, whatever. Moving on...
Actual Nominees:
Oh, let's see who got a Best Actress nomination. Charlize Theron - oh yeah, no surprise there. Diane Keaton? Cool. She's on my list. Naomi Watts? Great performance, I predicted her, nice. Who else...Samantha Morton? Whoa. Wasn't expecting that, cool. Maybe I'll go see In America. Oh, so the last one must be Nicole--what? Keisha what? The little girl from Whale Rider?? What???????? Over Nicole Kidman??????? Yeah, she was nominated for a SAG -- but for Supporting Actress. How'd she get in lead? How'd she get nominated at all? WHAT IS GOING ON???? Well, once I calm down -- more power to her. She was 13 when she filmed the movie, youngest Best Actress nominee ever -- wow cool, maybe I'll go rent Whale Rider. Wait--I only got 3 out of 5 right in this category? Screw you, Morton and Castle-Hughes!!
Actual Nominees:
Alas, my "really good feeling" for Chris Cooper didn't work out, despite his SAG nom. Paul Bettany for Master and Commander, Sean Astin for Lord of the Rings, and William H. Macy, also for Seabiscuit, didn't get nominated, although I would've picked them all over Djimon Hounsou who had a chance but an extremely outside one. (You know him as the slave in Amistad and Russell Crowe's best friend in Gladiator.) Despite missing one, I'm excited about this category. Hounsou's a cool guy, Baldwin made a nice comeback, Del Toro's performance is legendary in my opinion, and Watanabe is the man (see my Last Samurai review). I'm thinking Robbins will probably win, but he's awesome too.
Actual Nominees:
Wow, the most convoluted category this year and I managed to claw my way to victory with four out of five correct. It was risky predicting Aghdashloo, but thank goodness one of my risks actually paid off for once. I paid for it, though, in the sense that I displaced Gay Harden, who also ended up being nominated. Many people thought Johanssen would get snubbed because those who voted for her would split the vote by half nominating her for Actress and half for Supporting. But whenever people say actors will split themselves, I never fall for it. It never happens. Looks like it did this time. (Then again, maybe the Academy members were sick of watching those incessant advertisements for Johanssen's The Perfect Score and decided it was payback time.)
Actual Nominees:
Again, City of God robs me from having 5 out of 5. But suavely, I saved myself from 3/5 by taking a gamble and voting for American Splendor, a slot which most thought would go to Cold Mountain. The other three are fairly self-explanatory. It's odd that Master and Commander didn't get nominated in this though; nor did it get any acting nominations. It's as though the Academy enjoys it purely as a technical achievement. In fact, Master and Commander, Seabiscuit, and The Return of the King, all best picture nominees, didn't get any acting nominations. Very, very rare -- although ROTK and Seabiscuit, unlike M & C, were represented in this category as well.
Actual Nominees:
My own specialty, and I only get 3/5 right. Maybe it's because the Academy decided to go foreign on me and nominate Dirty Pretty Things, which I barely know a thing about, and The Barbarian Invasions, the frontrunner for the foreign film category which is supposed to be really good. I suppose the problem with 21 Grams is that it never really took off as the hit that many thought it was going to, and as for Love Actually, well, that was a hunch that didn't pan out.
So those are the top eight. Out of the 40 nominees, I got 30 right, 75% of all nominees correct. The following, albeit without the explanations, are the rest of the predictions vs. winners. If I had thought about them a little more beyond last night, I probably could've gotten more of them right. Anyway, beneath these: a list of all films and their nomination count.
Actual Nominees:
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Overall score: I got 62 out of 92 correctly, or 67.4% of all nominations.
(in order of # of nominations)
And that's a wrap (finally).
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