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Nominees listed alphabetically by movie. I'm also not officially putting any "alternates" on the list aside from mentioning what other films have a chance, because I mean, that's just a cheap way of covering your back. So here are my "official", final predictions for the top ten awards.
Cold Mountain
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
This is probably the category I'm most confident with. I'd say I'm about 95% certain that I have at least four out of five of the nominees correctly, but there's always room for surprises. I'd say the film most likely to go would be Master and Commander, maybe replaced by Lost in Translation or another dark horse. But Seabiscuit could go if I'm overestimating how much the Academy will like it, and if there's a big Miramax backlash Cold Mountain could be left out. But Return of the King and Mystic River are the two locks. They've been locks for months and nothing is going to change that.
Jim Sheridan, In America
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Replace Jim Sheridan with Anthony Minghella of Cold Mountain, and that's the list many people are predicting. Many say Gary Ross will be nominated for Seabiscuit after getting a Director's Guild nomination. But I have to go with this line-up. Peter Jackson's definitely in despite being snubbed last year, and Clint Eastwood is enormously well-respected. Ditto with Peter Weir, whose credits includes The Truman Show, and with Golden Globe and Director's Guild nominations should make the cut. Lost in Translation seems to be more of a critic's film than an Academy member's, but Sofia Coppola's the it-girl this year, and many Academy members are probably afraid of being branded sexist if they don't nominate her. For the final slot I can see Jim Sheridan being the sort of "surprise" nominee that Pedro Almodovar and David Lynch were in the two years past. Buzz seems to say that many members of the Academy loved this film, and Jim Sheridan (My Left Foot) has been around and respected for a while. I say he'll get in over Minghella and Ross.
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Russell Crowe, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Sean Penn, Mystic River
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
I stayed away from Johnny Depp as long as I could but finally I'm putting him on the short list. With a Golden Globe and, more importantly, a Screen Actor's Guild nomination (The SAG nominations are extraordinarily good predictors of Academy nominations) he should get in for being one of the most popular comedy performances of the year, sort of like when Renee Zellweger was nominated as Bridget Jones. Bill Murray got the best reviews of his career in Lost in Translation, Ben Kingsley got plenty of buzz for House of Sang and Fog, Sean Penn's a no-brainer for Mystic River, and I'm predicting Russell Crowe because I assume a lot of Academy members love both him and his film. Another guy that could get in is Jude Law for Cold Mountain, but his role's not particularly "showy" and will probably be overshadowed by Nicole Kidman and Renee Zellwger (and will miss a nom for sort of the same reason Ewan McGregor missed out on Moulin Rouge).
Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain
Jennifer Connelly, House of Sand and Fog
Charlize Theron, Monster
Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Many are saying that Nicole Kidman could be left out after being left out of the SAG nominations, but I highly doubt the Academy's favorite actress (see last year) will miss out on a nod. Charlize Theron is a revelation in the low-budget Monster and right now, is favored not only for the nomination but for the win. Diane Keaton got great reviews in Something's Gotta Give, and Naomi Watts, nominated for a SAG and a British Film Award lends me to believe that there's much stronger support for 21 Grams than the Golden Globe nominations led us to believe (where 21 Grams was completely left out). Plus: I've seen the movie and she's simply incredible. That leaves Jennifer Connelly for House of Sand and Fog, the movie I'm afraid I'm over-predicting. But...it's a good follow-up to her Oscar-winning A Beautiful Mind, and it more than makes up for this summer's The Hulk (which was supposed to be terrible). Other possibilities: Uma Thurman for Kill Bill (no SAG nomination leaves her out of the race, I think) or 16-year-old Evan Rachel Wood for Thirteen (a SAG nomination puts her very possibly in the race, in my opinion).
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Chris Cooper, Seabiscuit
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
Ken Watanabe's SAG nomination gets him on the list, I think, as do Del Toro's numerous nominations including SAGS and British Film Awards. Tim Robbin's is another no-brainer from Mystic River, and Alec Baldwin's gained a lot of buzz for his much-lauded performance in the indie The Cooler. The wild card here is the fifth slot, which I'm giving to Chris Cooper. The reason: I have a strong, strong feeling that he'll get nominated (which I'm sure I'll regret saying when he doesn't). The other possibilities: a lot; this is a crowded race. There's William H. Macy, also for Seabiscuit; Albert Finney for Big Fish (who I'll probably kick myself later on for not predicting), Peter Sarsgaard for the indie Shattered Glass (too unknown), and Ian McKellen and Sean Astin for Return of the King. Sean Astin has the best chance, but McKellen was nominated for a British Film award (hmm...he's British and Sean Astin's not...I smell bias).
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Holly Hunter, Thirteen
This is the one big category where I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I'M DOING. This is the most convoluted category by far. Renee Zellweger is the one and only lock - and that's it. Many people were thinking Scarlett Johanssen, but everybody's afraid she'll split the vote herself, by being nominated in both leading and supporting categories. I still think she's in though. Holly Hunter's probably in too...I originally thought there wasn't that much support for the movie Thirteen, but after a SAG and a Golden Globe nomination, I'm assuming she's got it. I held off on Patricia Clarkson for a while, because I really couldn't see the Academy liking some Katie Holmes-starring independent that barely anyone saw...but like the sheep I am, I'm following everyone else's predictions and predicting her, too. Plus, she was nominated for the all-important SAG. That leaves Shohreh Aghdashloo, which, I don't know, I have no idea why I'm predicting her but I am. Most people are saying House of Sand and Fog won't get nominated for anything beyond a possible Best Actor, so I don't know why I'm giving it three predictions. But Aghdashloo (as Ben Kingsley's wife) has been singled out and gotten great reviews, and if enough Academy members see her and like her then she could make it. But Maria Bello for The Cooler, Keisha Castle-Hughes for Whale Rider, and especially Marcia Gay Harden could also make the list. As a matter of fact, I have no idea why I'm predicting Aghdashloo over Marcia Gay Harden. Whatever. I've given up on this category.
American Splendor
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
...and Cold Mountain. I'm probably going to kick myself for not predicting it, but I'm just more sure of the others than I am of this. The likeliest to lose out is American Splendor, but this is one of the only categories it has a chance at, and I assume with unanimous critical praise, it will get SOMETHING. The others I'm pretty confident will make it, though. They've been campaigning Seabiscuit like there's no tomorrow, Mystic River and Return of the King should make it, and again, I'm counting on the idea that the Academy will love Master and Commander.
Jim Sheridan, In America
Andrew Stanton, Finding Nemo
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Richard Curtis, Love Actually
Guillermo Arriaga, 21 Grams
Ah yes, Best Original Screenplay, the category where the Academy loves to nominate films that they don't nominate for Best Picture. In America seems like a Best Original Screenplay-ish movie, as do Lost in Translation and 21 Grams. Love Actually's been getting plenty of love, but it has no other real chance for an Oscar nomination, so I'm putting it here. And I'm following the Shrek precedent by putting Finding Nemo in here too. Everybody really, really loved the film, simple as that. Other possibilities: The Station Agent (not popular enough) and The Barbarian Invasions (too foreign).
Brother Bear
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville
The Triplets of Belleville, a foreign critical favorite, is sort of this year's Spirited Away, Finding Nemo is a no-brainer, and Brother Bear gets in by default over the flop known as Sinbrad - er, Sindbad. Cartoons have been lacking this year.
The Barbarian Invasions
Goodbye, Lenin!
Osama
I'm Not Scared
The Return
The Barbarian Invasions is a lock, and Goodbye Lenin and Osama (no, not Bin Laden) are pretty close to that. Actually, who am I kidding? I have no idea about this category. I've never heard of most of these films. I'm just stealing these off other lists.
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