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Well, here they are. The nominations will be announced the morning of January 25th, thus rendering this prediction sheet completely out of date, but in the name of tradition I had to do it and see how I will fare. So take a gander at this list and it'll give you a pretty good idea of which films will be competing at the ceremony in February. First, though, a few notes:
1. I didn't do technical nominations this year. What's the point in going through the motions when you don't know what you're talking about? I didn't pay attention to the technical categories this year and will thus skip them. Besides, without them last year I would've done a whole lot better. So this year I didn't bother rushing through the prediction process of the technical nominations.
2. I don't feel good about Finding Neverland as a contender. I never totally bought that it would be a Best Picture contender, an Adapted Screenplay contender, I never bought that Kate Winslet or Johnny Depp had secure nominations. But this is just a very bad feeling on my part and plenty of evidence points to the contrary. As I've learned time and time again, faced with overwhelming evidence versus a gut feeling, your gut feeling is usually wrong. This is just my disclaimer so I can shout "I knew it!" in case we find in a few days that Finding Neverland has underperformed.
3. I put alternates up for every category, predictions that just barely missed the cut. Also, where I saw fit I put up a "dark horse" prediction, meaning it's been lurking in the shadows, it would be unwise to predict it, but it may just take it by surprise.
The Official Nomination Prediction List:
BEST PICTURE:
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Finding Neverland
Hotel Rwanda
Alternate: Ray
Notes: So. Best Picture. Most people seem to think the first four are locks; I'm not positive about Finding Neverland but whatever. If Neverland falls out, chances are both Rwanda and Ray will fill the void. Otherwise, the two will have to duke it out. My guess is Hotel Rwanda, who's been gaining buzz, while many might think that Ray was more of a Jamie Foxx showcase than a Best Picture contender.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
Terry George, Hotel Rwanda
Alternate: Zhang Yimou, House of Flying Daggers
Notes: I hate predicting Best Director because it seems like they always throw in one or two out-of-nowhere nominations (Fernando Meirelles last year, Pedro Almodovar before). So this year the foreign Zhang Yimou might take a spot. Or maybe if they all rally behind Hotel Rwanda, Terry George will snatch it. Or it could be anybody, like Taylor Hackford for Ray. Who knows?
BEST ACTOR:
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Alternate: Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside
Notes: It just doesn't seem like Depp got enough rave reviews to make the final list, and if the Academy agrees with me, they'll almost certainly go with Bardem, playing a parapalegic fighting for his right to die (the most heartwarming film of the year). But hopefully they'll nominate Giamatti after snubbing him for American Splendor last year.
BEST ACTRESS:
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Alternate: Julie Delpy, Before Sunset
Dark Horse: Emmy Rossum, The Phantom of the Opera
Notes: Unfortunately, Rossum didn't gain enough buzz to be a serious contender, but I suppose there's always a chance. The chances of Delpy rest on how many people in the Academy saw Before Sunset. Although ultimately, it seems like the race will once again, like 1999, come down to Swank and Bening duking it out for the title.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Clive Owen, Closer
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
Alternate: Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey
Dark Horse: James Garner, The Notebook
Notes: Nobody even mentioned Garner until Entertainment Weekly ran a little sidebar that said it sure would be nice for Garner to be nominated, and around the same time he was a surprise nomination of the Screen Actors Guild, which is usually a good indicator. I still don't think he'll get enough votes, but I'm not confident in Freddie Highmore either, who was also nominated for a SAG. But if thirteen-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes could do it last year in Whale Rider, it's worth a shot. Sarsgaard making the finals would be awesome, though.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Natalie Portman, Closer
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
Alternate: Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland
Dark Horse: Sharon Warren, Ray
Notes: I'm feeling more and more confident about Okonedo after she was nominated for a SAG, even though I'm kind of worried that I'm overestimating Hotel Rwanda a tad. If Kate Winslet gets in I fear she'll push out Natalie Portman; there's a small phenomenon that says some winners of Golden Globes don't get nominated for the Oscar - Jim Carrey for Man on the Moon, Gene Hackman for the Royal Tenenbaums.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Charlie Kaufman, Eternal SUnshine of the Spotless Mind
John Logan, The Aviator
Keir Pierson, Terry George, Hotel Rwanda
Bill Condon, Kinsey
Brad Bird, The Incredibles
Dark Horse: Zach Braff, Garden State
Notes: Those five seem like a pretty good bet. Most people had written off Garden State as an "almost, but Braff will have plenty of other opportunities" case, but then it was nominated for the Writer's Guild awards. As for the Incredibles, they seem to have in recent years reserved a spot for computer-animated features (Shrek, Finding Nemo).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
The Motorcycle Diaries
Finding Neverland
Before Sunset
Alternate: Closer
Dark Horse: Mean Girls
Notes: I just have a hunch on Before Sunset, especially because I have a hunch Closer won't get enough votes to make the final five; I'll be happy to be wrong, though. This also seems to be the place where they can recognize The Motorcycle Diaries without sacrificing a bigger award. And I know you think I'm crazy for mentioning Mean Girls, but surprise, surprise, it was nominated by the Writer's Guild. Strange but true - but I doubt that will translate to Oscar success.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Shrek 2
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Notes: The first two are locks and since the Polar Express became a surprise hit and starred Tom Hanks, I'm pretty confident it will fill out the category.
BREAKDOWN:
The Aviator: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Million Dollar Baby: Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Sideways: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay
Finding Neverland: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Hotel Rwanda: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Eternal Sunshine: Actress, Original Screenplay
Closer: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Kinsey: Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
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