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Believe it or not, but we're already halfway done with the year. And like every year, there's very few films that have been released so far that have proven themselves to be Oscar contenders in any major category. Still, there's a few movies worth discussing, and as for future releases, I figured I'd give you a heads-up as to what's getting the early buzz. Keep in mind, though: there are plenty of other movies not on this list that will come to prove themselves in the days to come.
The Passion of the Christ: Is the Academy going to touch this with a ten foot pole? It got some raves, but plenty of reviewers panned the violence, and the traditionally liberal-minded Hollywood didn't mesh real well with Mel Gibson's fundamentalism. Still, the film's certainly in the public eye, and box office success often translates to Oscar success. Possible nominations: Director (long shot), Costume Design, Art Direction, Cinematography, Makeup.
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban: The third film in the saga benefited from by far the best reviews of the entire series - and a slightly smaller box office. The first two films didn't get any major nominations, but both received a few technical nominations each. Director Alfonso Cuaron is largely (and justly) credited to giving the film it's darker, more entertaining edge, but will the Academy nominate him for a Harry Potter film? Ultimate answer: no. Possible nominations: Visual Effects, Score, Sound, Editing, Art Direction.
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind: It will probably end up being one of the best reviewed films of the year. Critics raved over both Jim Carrey and Kate Winslet. Screenwriter Charlie Kaufman had done it again. BUT - then there are the numerous complicated factors. First, the 30 million dollar box office. Great for an indie, but great for an all-star cast and probably the only screenwriter most people have ever heard of? By comparison, Bruce Almighty, a movie so vastly inferior it shouldn't deserve comparison, made 242 million. But aside from the box office, there's also Charlie Kaufman's track record - Being John Malkovich and Adaptation only grabbed a handful of nominations, and both were collaborations between him and director Spike Jonze, who did not direct this one. And then finally, there's the release date - the Academy has a perilously short memory. Possible nominations: Original Screenplay.
Fahrenheit 9/11: The highest grossing documentary ever, winner of the Palme D'or (first place) at Cannes, seen by a usually liberal Hollywood? Should mean a hit with the Academy. But will they both giving it any other nominations besides Documentary? And do they really want to risk another Michael Moore Oscar speech? Possible nominations: Documentary (sure thing), Score.
Spider-Man 2: Raves, raves, raves, and still more raves. The first movie was largely a critical success, but this movie blows it through the water. Oh, plus it's gigantic box office (180 million in it's first six days.) But the major categories? Nope, not seeing it. Look for it, however, to have a good chance to take home Visual Effects as it's consolation prize, now that the Lord of the Rings movies no longer have a monopoly on that category (or will that go to Harry Potter?) Possible nominations: Visual Effects, Original Screenplay (long shot), Editing.
De-lovely: This biopic of Cole Porter actually got a limited release recently, but America has largely not had a chance to see it yet, so I'll say it's upcoming. The reviews have been mixed, and it didn't get any awards at Cannes (where it premiered), but Kevin Kline's performance has continuously been singled out as a standout. I think by the end of the year, however, he'll be the only one with a real shot, unless Ashley Judd gains some buzz. Possible nominations: Actor, Costume Design.
A Home at the End of the World: A real tough call. Based on a book by Michael Cunningham (The Hours), this dramedy starring Colin Farrell, Robin Wright Penn, and Dallas Roberts is about some kind of strange love triangle. Bobby (Colin Farrell) used to be best friends and possible lovers with Dallas Roberts character; Roberts later has a kid with a woman played by Penn, and the four of them turn into some kind of not-completely-happy family. The focus will definitely be on the performers, probably leaving the director out to dry (like In The Bedroom), but the reviews will make or break the film. It could sag the traditional indie spot for a Best Picture nomination, or get left out completely. Colin Farrell's performance, though, judging from the trailer, looks quite good. And Sissy Spacek's in it too, so you never know with her. Release: July 23rd (limited). Possible nominations: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.
Collateral: Definitely not just another Tom Cruise action movie. It's directed by Michael Mann, who's made Academy-friendly films such as The Insider and Ali, and who tends to feed acting nominations to his stars. Tom Cruise stars as a hit man who hires cabdriver Jamie Foxx to drive him around during one long night; after Foxx realizes the nature of Cruise's character, the night gets pretty interesting. The trailers look excellent, and both Cruise and Foxx are headlining the movie (a departure from Cruise's usual movies that pair him and a lesser star). Nominating Foxx and not Cruise wouldn't be surprising (it would be a re-hash of nominating Ken Watanabe last year for the Last Samurai) but Cruise is playing against-type enough that the Academy might go for him too. (What if Cruise and Foxx both excel - will they both campaign for an Actor nomination? Chances are the advertisers will shuttle Foxx into supporting actor territory.) Cruise has been nominated three times before but hasn't won, and while this is still unlikely, Denzel Washington pulled off a similar against-type performance for Training Day and took home the trophy. Then again, perhaps the summer release date is a signal that the movie isn't an Oscar kind of film. That's the problem with upcoming releases: plenty of titles that look promising fade from the list of prospects fast. Release: August 6th. Possible nominations: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor.
The Manchurian Candidate: Another possibly Oscar-friendly film that nobody's sure of since it's released in the summer. Denzel Washington's in the role Frank Sinatra played in the '50s, while Meryl Streep's in the Angela Lansbury role. The trailer looks great and the poster is admirably offbeat (at least the one I saw at Carousel Mall), but there is an increased weariness about this after another re-make, the Stepford Wives, disappointed at the box office and got some pretty awful reviews (and that starred everybody-loves-her Nicole Kidman, to boot). It's a political thriller about a guy (Washington) who's old friend (Liev Schreiber) is running for president, but apparently he's a secret communist or something, or he was brainwashed during the Gulf War or something. I don't really know, because apparently it's fairly different from the original. Streep's performance (as Schreiber's mother) looks pretty one-note, and Washington, barring Training Day, always seems to deliver his lines in the exact same way. If critics take to it, the buzz might sustain through the Oscar season, and the box office is still up in the air; it could be good adult-oriented counter-programming to all the blockbusters, or it could tank. Oh, and it's directed by Jonathon Demme, who scored with Silence of the Lambs but flopped in the recent The Truth About Charlie. Release: July 30th. Possible nominations: Picture, Director, maybe an acting nomination (for Schreiber?)
Finding Neverland: First it was called Neverland, then J. M. Barrie's Neverland, now it's apparently changed to the (in my opinion lesser) Finding Neverland. Just Neverland would've been cooler. Anyway, apparently it's a drama about the curious guy J. M. Barrie, who's claim to fame is of course writing Peter Pan. It stars hot commodity Johnny Depp, and also Kate Winslet, and it's actually only PG, so maybe it'll be one of those heartwarming stories. The trailer kind of has the same tone as Big Fish. Can't wait to see Depp's performance, of course. The only problem is, Miramax is definitely backing Martin Scorsese's The Aviator as it's number one Oscar-potential film, so Neverland could suffer from less exposure (and despite Depp, a lackluster box office; it isn't really the most marketable concept in the world). Release: October 22nd. Possible nominations: Picture, Actor, Actress, Score.
Alexander: Oliver Stone's big Alexander the Great movie. Epic adventure. Look's like it will be the critical-friendly counterpart to Troy. Colin Farrell stars as Alexander, in a cast that includes the likes of Angelina Jolie (as his mother??) and Val Kilmer. It certainly looks like a Best Picture nominee, and Stone's no stranger to the Academy, but acting nominations are a tad shaky, especially if Farrell gets his critical kudos from A Home at the End of the World. The critics will probably pick some supporting character they like and run with them...or no one, a la the Lord of the Rings parts 2 and 3. Release: November or December. Possible nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor/Actress, technicals.
The Aviator: Martin Scorsese's next movie. A biopic of Howard Hughes starring Leonardo DiCaprio as Hughes and also Jude Law, Cate Blanchett, and oddly enough, Gwen Stefani. Oh, and it has Miramax's full backing for its big Oscar push. With factors like that, you can smell Oscar from a mile away. Miramax slightly faltered with Cold "no Best Picture nomination" Mountain, but I'm assuming that's merely a hiccup. Release: December. Possible nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Costume Design, Score, Sound, Editing, Art Direction...
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