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First Look 2003

Here is my first set of predictions. The only full category I have is Best Picture, because obviously it’s the most important, right? Don’t worry, right before the nominations (and subsequently the winners) are announced, I’ll give you my official predictions in every single category, even Best Sound Effects Editing. But here we go:

BEST PICTURE:

1. The Lord of the Rings – The Return of the King

This one’s a no-brainer. Both The Fellowship of the Ring and The Two Towers were nominated, first of all. Why? Because they had fantastic reviews and a huge box office, and the Academy obviously ate it up like candy. The only way for this not to get nominated is for it to be a complete bomb with both critics and the box office, which is impossible, because:

• The critics—the assumption that the critics will love the film is pure common sense. All three Rings movies were shot back to back as though only one (albeit very long) film was being made. Therefore, the third movie will have the same tone as the first two and will be judged like the first two. Also, unlike the first and second movie, it will have a surefire ending, which will only help it. In every interview with anyone related to the movie, they assure the public that the third one is the best; recently, Elijah Wood was reported to have sobbed when ROTK was screened for the cast for the first time. The movie will be just as much a critical success as the first two. Even if it’s bizarrely slightly less, it will pose no problem; according to www.rottentomatoes.com, 171 positive reviews were counted for the first film versus 10 negative, and The Two Towers had an unprecedented 196 positive reviews and 5 negative reviews.
• The box office—this is basically the same argument as that of the critics: if it worked for the first two, it will work for the third. The third has the added bonus of being able to be marketed as “the end”, the last time you’ll be able to see The Lord of the Rings in theaters. It’s an event film, pure and simple, and fans will be lining up to see it more than once. The Two Tower did better than The Fellowship of the Ring when maybe predicted it not to, so momentum is clearly also a factor. (By comparison, the first film made 310 million compared to Harry Potter 1’s 318; The Two Towers made 334 million compared to Harry Potter 2’s 264.)

2. Cold Mountain

This film stars Academy Award favorites Nicole Kidman (2-time nominee, Best Actress winner), Jude Law (1-time nominee) and Renee Zellweger (2-time nominee). It is directed by the Oscar winning director Anthony Minghella (The English Patient – which won 10 Oscars back in ’96). It’s the story of a young man, Law, trying to get home to his wife (Kidman) during the Civil War. In other words, it’s a period piece, and an epic one at that. What’s more, it’s an adaptation of a popular and respected novel.

And finally, one more thing will almost assure this film’s nomination: it’s a Miramax movie.

Let me explain. Miramax is the king at promoting movies to the Academy. If a movie gets Miramax backing to become Miramax’s chosen “Oscar movie”, then a nomination is almost assured. Cold Mountain is the movie that Miramax has decided to market as their biggest Oscar movie this year. Last year it was Chicago, which, if you recall, won Best Picture and five other awards, and was nominated for seven more. In fact, aside from Chicago, fellow nominee Gangs of New York was also a Miramax film, and The Hours was co-financed by Miramax. Even The Two Towers was executive produced by Harvey Weinstein, chief of Miramax. In other words, four out of five of last year’s Best Picture nominees were somehow attached to Miramax.

In other words, Cold Mountain has everything going for it and nothing going against it. However: reviews and box office numbers remain to be seen.

3. Mystic River

Day after day, this film is getting closer and closer to a Best Picture nomination. The critics loved it, notably Clint Eastwood’s direction and Sean Penn and Tim Robbins’ performances. It’s doing pretty well at the box office, a bit higher than most expected. Sean Penn’s nomination is a virtual lock; Tim Robbins and Clint Eastwood for director are not far behind. The script will most likely make the cut for an Adapted Screenplay nomination, and all of those nominations might carry out to include a Best Supporting Actor nod for Kevin Bacon and a Supporting Actress nod for Laura Linney. All of this is shaping up so that Mystic River will enter into the Best Picture foray.

After these three candidates, the race gets a bit trickier. Here are the two movies I think are making the cut…for now. Subject to change.

4. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Let's just list the things that this movie has going for it:

• The Academy loves Russell Crowe
• It's gotten great reviews
• A hobbit is in it
• The opening weekend box office take was good
• Has that epic, period piece feel to it
• Respected director (Peter Weir - The Truman Show, Dead Poets Society)

Not a bad list. Will it have that over-the-top push that a Best Picture candidate needs? We will see…

And finally, there's the "wild card" slot. I'm officially predicting...

5. In America

...but that could change fairly soon. Other notable possibilities: House of Sand and Fog, The Missing, Big Fish. But first, In America.

First of all, I have to come clean and say that I really don't know much about this film. It's directed by Jim Sheridan and is supposed to be a kind of heartwarming-but-still-true tale of an Irish family who immigrate to America. It's supposed to be Sheridan's "most personal project". Among the people in it are Samantha Morton (the precog from Minority Report) and Djimon Hounsou (Russell Crowe's African friend in Gladiator). Sheridan previously directed My Left Foot in the late 80s, leading Daniel Day-Lewis to a Best Actor win.

As for the other mentioned possibilities…

First of all, these extra three movies aren't the only movies that have a shot at a Best Picture nomination. But for now, these three plus the previous five are what I think have the biggest chances.

The House of Sand and Fog - this movie stars Ben Kingsley (a.k.a. Gandhi) and Jennifer Connelly (who we know and love from Requiem for a Dream…and A Beautiful Mind) in a tale about the American dream gone sour. At least, that's how one person described it to me. Connelly plays some messed up lady who wants to keep a house from Ben Kingsley, who eventually gets really mad about it. Not quite sure on the details, as you can see, but Ben Kingsley is supposed to be absolutely amazing, as is the film. It's buzzing around the online circles.

The Missing - Ron Howard's directorial follow-up to A Beautiful Mind means that the Academy will at least consider it. This dark western stars Tommy Lee Jones, Cate Blanchett, and Evan Rachel Wood (one of the girls in the acclaimed indie Thirteen) and concerns the abduction of Blanchett's youngest child and the help she gets from estranged father Jones to find her again. Sounds too dark to me to be an all-around success, and Westerns usually don't do too hot, so I'm not personally buzzing about it as loudly as others are. But who knows?

Big Fish - Tim Burton (Batman, Edward Scissorhands, Sleepy Hollow, Beetlejuice, and more) directs what's supposed to be his most family-friendly film starring Ewan McGregor, Albert Finney, Jessica Lange, Alison Lohman, Danny DeVito, Steve Buscemi, Billy Crudup, and more. It's supposed to be about Finney's character telling his son (Crudup) some very tall tales from when he was a young adult (played by McGregor). Very visual and cinematic, sort of has a storybook feel to it, but as of yet I don't really see a Best Picture nominee probably. It's got people talking because of the huge great cast and shift of Burton from being freaky, to freaky in a friendly way. Plenty of technical nominations like costumes and cinematography are expected.

That's it for now folks! I figure this has gone long enough. My next column will most likely feature revised predictions. And any news that's happened between now and then concerning the race. Or whatever. I'll write whatever I want.

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