|
|
|
| Oscar Column Archive | Back to... [Home] [Oscar Columns] |
(I apologize in advance for the typos.)
Right before the Oscar ceremony happens on Sunday, March 5th, 2006, I'll give you my straight-up, no-second-guessing list of predictions. But we're more than a week ahead of time today. So we can relax a bit. I can give you alternates and dark horses and possible upsets. Let you know where we stand in the race.
But first, how in general will the ceremony shape up? Well, one thing is true: it will have very bad ratings. Jon Stewart, like Chris Rock last year, might boost them a little bit, but as of right now the highest grossing Best Picture nominee (that'd be Brokeback Mountain) is hovering around the 65 million dollar mark. Good Night and Good Luck and Capote are both still under 30 million. Crash made 50 million before going to DVD. And Munich is hovering at about 45 million -- a tad less than Spielberg's 215 million take that War of the Worlds enjoyed.
In other words: not enough people care. And therefore, not enough people will watch. The question has to be raised, whose fault is that? Well, as much as I'm tempted to come up with some theory about out-of-touch studios and pretentious critics, I have to risk alienating my readers: it's the audiences' fault. The sad truth is that people like watching crap. I remember a bit Chris Rock did last year where he asked people off the street what their own best picture was. The two titles I remember coming up the most were White Chicks and Aliens vs. Predator.
But I must counter myself and claim that this is not necessarily a terrible thing. It's simply due to the approach you take to watching movies. Most people watch movies to put their brain away, not take them out. They don't really want to be moved. They don't want to be put through emotional turmoil. They want to laugh, and maybe watch people shoot each other. And hey, I like that stuff a lot too. As much as I respect Million Dollar Baby, I just plain don't want to sit through it again.
Sure, I'm over-generalizing -- I know plenty of perfectly normal people who adore Crash, and the fact that Brokeback Mountain has made any money at all is a minor miracle -- but the fact of the matter is, people usually want entertainment and not much more. And this year, we're given movies about two gay cowboys, a black-and-white 1950's-era political drama that doesn't have any exterior shots, a biopic of Truman Capote (and let's face it, most people honestly don't have any idea who that is), an almost-three-hour rumination on the Israel conflict, and a movie that tries to tell you that you're a racist. Where'd all the hobbits go?
Bottom line: don't be surprised when you read the "lowest ratings ever" headlines the next morning. End of rant; moving on.
BEST PICTURE:
Brokeback Mountain
Alternate: Crash
Dark Horse: None.
The Best Picture winner will be one of those two. I can't possibly foresee anything happening that would propel Capote, Good Night and Good Luck, or Munich to the winner's position. Brokeback's won every single guild top prize except the SAG for Best Ensemble, which went to Crash…it has a track record that almost assures it the winning position. However, Crash, of course, is your come-from-behind movie, the movie that was left for dead and is now coming full blast thanks to its resonance. So it's currently knocking on Brokeback's door. However, my prediction stands that the cowboys will beat the racists.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Alternate: Paul Haggis, Crash
Dark Horse: Steven Spielberg, Munich
Actor-turned-directors have a rich history of winning the award - Robert Redford, Kevin Costner, Clint Eastwood. But George Clooney should be happy with the nomination. Same for first-timer Bennett Miller for Capote: his nomination was essentially the Academy reassuring him they'll keep an eye out for him later. Spielberg always has one thing going for him: he's Spielberg. After all, he won for Saving Private Ryan when it lost Best Picture to Shakespeare in Love. Haggis is the main alternate because of Crash's resurgence, but he's a first timer, and from a television background, which probably taints it for the Academy a bit. Ang Lee meanwhile has the probable Best Picture, the Director's Guild award, and the history (Sense and Sensibility and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon were both Lee-helmed Academy hits). He's all but a lock.
BEST ACTOR:
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Alternate: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Dark Horse: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
You know, it's a real shame, because in years with less competition, I could see Hoffman, Ledger, and Joaquin Phoenix all take home the prize. But this year we've legitimately got five nominees that are all worthy of winning big (David Strathairn is the other, for all of you counting.) Hoffman is and has been the frontrunner since October. He's won pretty much everything leading up to this. But Ledger's performance is truly revelatory, and if Hoffman wasn't sitting in the lead, this category would be all but his. But perhaps it’s a good thing…Ledger will avoid the "Young-Oscar-Winner Curse" and have a prolific career. He's earned it. As for Terrence Howard…he's sort of in the position of Adrien Brody. A supposed-fifth-slot nominee in a film that seemingly doesn't have much support…and then he wins. It's not going to happen. But it could.
BEST ACTRESS:
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Alternate: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Dark Horse: None.
Judi Dench…how many times has she been nominated? Twenty? And Keira Knightley…well, I just plain can't imagine a scenario that would give her more votes than the two frontrunners. As for Charlize Theron…her movie bombed. So we're left with Witherspoon and Huffman. Witherspoon is the deserved frontrunner. If Huffman upsets her, I'll actually be kind of annoyed. Why? Because in any year of even slightly more competition, Huffman would've had a hard time securing a nomination. Her movie's got wildly mixed reviews, has barely made any money, and she barely has a major film career. Let's face it: as good as her performance may be, she's up there because (a) she's famous from Desperate Housewives, and (b) she's playing a man getting a sex change operation. I've complained about Reese Witherspoon's career before, but there's always been no doubt she's a heck of an actress when she wants to be; in Walk the Line she's fantastic, and she brings a little bit of old-Hollywood-style class to the proceedings.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
George Clooney, Syriana
Alternate: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Dark Horse: Matt Dillon, Crash
This is by far the hardest category to predict. If someone tallied the votes, in fact, they'd all probably come out closer than any other category -- all five nominees. Because just when you've written off Jake Gyllenhaal for the win, he goes and wins the British Film Award for Brokeback Mountain. So if we're looking at a major Brokeback sweep on Sunday night -- he could get swept up too. And William Hurt -- truly bizarre performance, but brilliant, and he has some ardent admirers. But personally I see it as a four-way race, with Clooney and Giamatti neck in neck, and Dillon and Gyllenhaal only a little ways behind. Most people are saying Clooney will get it thanks to the fact that everybody will want to award him something for his three nominations. But is that strong enough to put him over the top? Giamatti has been snubbed plenty of times and could win. But then, so could Dillon if voters are feeling the Crash love (and if he does, Crash's chances in the top categories go up about 50%).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Alternate: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
The Upset: Catherine Keener, Capote
This is the kind of category where if the frontrunner doesn't win (don't get me wrong, Weisz is my official prediction) it could be anybody. Well, except McDormand. She filled out a nice fifth slot but doesn't have a chance. But Amy Adams (for Junebug) is looking to be a lot of people's pick for an upset, and Catherine Keener could pull one of those Marcia Gay Hardens: a 40-year-old respected actress winning in the face of the young up-and-comers. The Academy likes her (she was nominated for Being John Malkovich), she's in the public eye more than ever thanks to 40-Year-Old Virgin, and it could be a way for them to stop Capote from going home empty-handed. But then again…Michelle Williams has her ardent supporters, many people saying she was the best thing about the frontrunner. Still, the past few months have been kind to Rachel Weisz as she's picked up award after award.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Crash
Alternate: Good Night, and Good Luck
Dark Horse: The Squid and the Whale
Match Point got its sole nomination here, so as cool as it would be, I doubt it'll win. A lot of people didn't like Syriana's writing, probably enough to keep it safely out of the way. Squid and the Whale is this year's little "indie hit". And finally, Good Night and Good Luck could be awarded here if the voters really want to give it (and George Clooney) an award. But Crash is by far the frontrunner. It’s the kind of multi-character concept script that would be a frontrunner in any other year, but the fact that the film has overwhelming support in other categories makes it a lock for this one.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Brokeback Mountain
Alternate: Munich
The Upset: Capote
A History of Violence's strength laid in its direction and acting more than its script, which stayed rather faithful to its graphic-novel source. The Constant Gardener shouldn't be totally written off, but it's more of a hit in the smaller circles, and most of its attention was given to its two leads and its director, anyway. Capote has a legitimate shot at a surprise…it stuck around this long; why not take the extra step? And Munich has the pedigree of its award-winning playwright (Tony Kushner) and the "risk-taking" factor that a lot of people praised it for: after all, it got both sides of the conflict mad at it. But this category usually goes to the Best Picture winner (or an overwhelming frontrunner like Sideways last year), and I doubt Brokeback Mountain will have much trouble securing the win.
That's it. Be sure to check back over the weekend for my last-minute list of predictions for every category.
Back to... [StrandedinManhattan.com] [Oscar Columns]