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Now that the Globes are over, the race is as clear as its going to get. All the guilds have had their say, as well as all the critics groups. How did the Globes go? Not bad -- from my predictions, I got 10 out of 13 right. My major failing was predicting a minor Crash rally which didn't happen -- Matt Dillon lost to George Clooney, and Original Screenplay lost to Brokeback Mountain. I guess the lesson would be to place your chips with Brokeback Mountain whenever possible -- except that I did with Michelle Williams, and she lost to Rachel Weisz. Turns out I know nothing.
So with all this in mind, here are my first official nomination predictions. Each category comes packaged with the five predictions, two alternates, a dark horse, and some commentary. Right before the nominations come out I'll give you a revised clean list of everything. No alternates, no dark horses -- just five. But for now I'm covering myself.
BEST PICTURE:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line
Alternates: Munich, Cinderella Man
Dark Horse: The Constant Gardener
Brokeback Mountain is still the frontrunner, especially after picking up four Globes. At this point, Good Night and Good Luck is, too. Crash, thanks to its polarizing reactions, might be left off, but it would be a surprise if it were. And as for Capote, its sort of the little indie that could -- despite not making much money yet, it swept up about every single guild nomination and critics group out there (although the Golden Globes never got the memo).
But after that it gets tricky. If one of the films is left off the list, the biggest chance is Walk the Line, thanks to the lack of directorial praising that films like Munich and Constant Gardener have benefited from. I'm leaving it up there because so far, it's the only film to break 60 million. And lets face it -- with the falling ratings of the ceremony, the voters feel pressure to actually nominate something that people have seen. I almost replaced it with Munich, but Munich feels kind of like Cold Mountain -- a film that seems like it should be sweeping the nominations but just plain isn't.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Michael Haneke, Cache
Paul Haggis, Crash
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Steven Spielberg, Munich
Alternates: Bennett Miller, Capote; Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener
Dark Horse: David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
There's always a surprise director nomination. Last year it was Mike Leigh. The year before it was Fernando Meirelles. The year before it was Pedro Almodovar. Seriously, every year. Well, this year instead of sitting scared, I'm going out on a limb and predicting someone absolutely no one else is: Michael Haneke for the little-publicized French thriller Cache. Foreign films often take the surprise spot, and Cache seems like the type of thing the snotty Academy types would get really excited about before turning in their votes. It's a total gut feeling, and one that's probably wrong -- but maybe not.
As for the others: Clooney and Lee are, once again, locks. If the Academy has any love at all for Munich they'll at the very least nominate the man in charge, Spielberg. And Haggis has gotten plenty of early acclaim, notably from the Director's Guild itself. Ditto for Miller, who I think will be pushed off in favor of Haneke. Meirelles has a decent shot, but he wouldn't really be a "surprise" anymore since they already used him as one for City of God. But some people are predicting the left-field nominee to be David Cronenberg, the man behind one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year.
BEST ACTOR:
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
Joaquin Pheonix, Walk the Line
Alternates: Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man; Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Dark Horse: Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener
Hoffman and Ledger are clear first and second places similar to Jamie Foxx and Leonardo DiCaprio last year. David Strathairn looks pretty locked for his Edward R. Murrow portrayal, but Joaquin Phoenix's chances have been called into question after his Globes win: the winner of Actor in a Comedy or Musical has been historically snubbed for an Oscar nomination (Jim Carrey for Man on the Moon, George Clooney for O Brother, Where Art Thou?, Gene Hackman for Royal Tenenbaums), but I think I've figured out the fundamental difference: those were all Comedy roles, and Phoenix's is a Musical role. (They just plain don't like comedies.) So he's still in.
So what about the last place? Ralph Fiennes, for his acclaimed but no-precursor-awards performance in Constant Gardener? Terrence Howard, ditto for Hustle & Flow? This is the one area I can really see my personal bias getting in the way: I just plain don't want Russell Crowe to win. So I've chosen that other critically acclaimed, little-seen performance, Jeff Daniels in The Squid and the Whale. It could really be any of those, and Crowe may have the best chance. But screw him.
BEST ACTRESS:
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Charlize Theron, North Country
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Alternates: Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale; Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha
Dark Horse: Vera Farmiga
Yeah, Judi Dench again. Yeah, Charlize Theron for playing someone ugly again -- North Country may have flopped, but thanks to the weakness of the category, she's still in. And Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon both just won Globes, making them pretty locked. So who else?
Ziyi Zhang was nominated for a SAG award, which gives her a strong chance, thanks to the frequent overlap of SAG nominations with Oscar nominations. Laura Linney is a critical favorite. But I think it'll go to Keira Knightley. Pride and Prejudice was a hit with audiences and critics, and we all know how the Academy loves young attractive women. And who is Vera Farmiga? I'm not quite sure…she was in a movie whose name I've forgotten, but was nominated out of nowhere from one of the precursor groups. Hence the Dark Horse status.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Matt Dillon, Crash
Frank Langella, Good Night, and Good Luck
George Clooney, Syriana
Alternates: Don Cheadle, Crash; Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Dark Horse: Chris Cooper, Capote
Paul Giamatti just plain makes sense: the Academy will feel obligated to nominate Cinderella Man, and they'll feel obligated to nominate long-snubbed Giamatti. So that's that. Dillon was Crash's biggest critical success, although Don Cheadle was also nominated for a SAG, and Terrence Howard has gotten a lot of publicity from the one-two punch of Crash and Hustle & Flow. Clooney just won the Globe. And Gyllenhaal, despite the snub from the Globes, got a SAG nom, plus he'll be part of Brokeback Mountain's large sweep.
My majorly iffy choice is Frank Langella, because he hasn't really won anything yet for this, and has been nominated for very little. But call it the Alan Alda syndrome: both middle-aged respected actors, both small parts in big movies, both not nominated for many precursors. And hopefully, both nominated. If not, there's Bob Hoskins or Chris Cooper, although both of those guys are riding on very little buzz.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Amy Adams, Junebug
Scarlett Johanssen, Match Point
Alternates: Catherine Keener, Capote; Frances McDormand, North Country
Dark Horse: Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha
Williams and Weisz are locked. Amy Adams was the year's critical favorite and falls into the "young attractive up-and-comer" category, and Maria Bello…well, I just plain want A History of Violence to be nominated for something. Catherine Keener might take her spot, for her portrayal of Harper Lee in Capote.
But more problematic is Scarlett Johanssen in Match Point. After plenty of strong buzz early on, she hasn't really been nominated for many precursors…as opposed to Frances McDormand in North Country. I keep flip-flopping the two…but ultimately, Johanssen was snubbed once before (for Lost in Translation), plus she's young and attractive, thanks to McDormand, who's not, and whose movie was a flop. As for Gong Li? I don't really think she has a chance. But there's not a lot of depth to the female categories so I threw her on there because I needed someone.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Cache
Cinderella Man
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
The Squid and the Whale
Alternates: Match Point, Junebug
Dark Horse: The 40-Year-Old Virgin
This is the category where they nominate the critical favorites that don't have chances with the big awards. Normally that would be Crash, so even though it's gotten strong in the past few weeks, it's still on here. But that definitely means Squid and the Whale. Sticking with my surprise Director nomination for Cache, I'm giving it one here, because this category also tends to nominate obscure foreign films (Barbarian Invasions, Dirty Pretty Things, etc.).
As for the other two? Good Night and Good Luck seems pretty locked, and I'm giving in to Cinderella Man on this one on account of it being nominated with the Writers Guild…of course, this means it will end up not getting nominated. If not, expect Match Point to take the fifth slot. (By the way, 40-Year-Old Virgin's not a dark horse because I think it has a real shot, but simply because it got a surprise nomination from the Writers Guild, which, unlike the Academy, enjoys comedies.)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Syriana
Alternates: Munich, Walk the Line
Dark Horse: Pride and Prejudice
Brokeback Mountain's locked, of course. Capote seems like a no-brainer, too. A lot of critics were split over whether Syriana was an intelligent thriller or a soapbox of junk politics, but it'll get in, too. A History of Violence fills one of the "critical favorite" spots, especially if Maria Bello is left out of the Supporting Actress race.
So that leaves the Constant Gardener for my fifth slot. But don't count out Munich -- though it was written by playwright Tony Kushner, he scored big with the HBO adaptation of his play Angels in America. Another personal bias alert: although the film is well-written, I just think its length gets in the way -- if the movie had been twenty minutes shorter I think everyone would've been a lot happier, and the Academy might not appreciate the repetition in the middle segments of the film. Walk the Line is riding on its performances, not its script. So that leaves Pride and Prejudice as a dark horse…if they were swept off their feet by Knightley, they might also throw a companion nomination its way.
So as for the eight major categories, this is how my predicted tally of nominations goes:
6: Brokeback Mountain
5: Good Night, and Good Luck
4: Crash
3: Capote, Walk the Line
2: The Squid and the Whale, Syriana, The Constant Gardener, Cinderella Man, A History of Violence, Cache
1: Munich, Pride and Prejudice, North Country, Mrs. Henderson Presents, Transamerica, Junebug, Match Point
***
And…that's a wrap. For anyone interested, I'm writing this on Microsoft Word and it's taken up five full pages. Sorry about that. Until next time….
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