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Well, the Golden Globes are on tonight and I'm going to bite the bullet and give you my straight-up predictions on their film categories: no alternates, no dark horses, no order of likelihood. Depending on how terrible I do, I'll probably end up covering my bases on my Oscar predictions as much as possible. The nominations are announced at the end of this month, so you'll get my predictions a few days before that.
But for now…what of the Globes? In the days since my last update, the race has become much clearer than it had been, and we can learn a few lessons. The first is that Brokeback Mountain is still the undisputed frontrunner. Thanks to the ridiculous amount of publicity it has gotten -- it's practically already become a pop-culture joke -- it shouldn't have any trouble grabbing the top spot in the Globes. The question is whether it's peaking too high right now and will simmer down by the time the Oscar ceremony actually takes place.
Another lesson: I underestimated Capote. Alas. Since we last spoke, it has had a dominating presence in most of the Guild nominations: the Writers, Directors, and Producers Guilds all gave it nominations, as well as Screen Actors Guild nominations for Hoffman, Supporting Actress Catherine Keener, and Best Ensemble. In light of all this I think Hoffman, at least, is still frontrunner for the Best Actor race, but this could also mean Capote will get thrust into the Best Picture race. Easily.
And finally: Crash is coming back in full force. It recently made headlines (at least in the places where I read) by sending no less than 130,000 screener copies to Academy members (who often receive copies from all of the studio hopefuls). That's a lot. It's definitely trying to break the curse of the spring release, a time which usually gets forgotten come Oscar time. But even without the push from the studio itself, this movie is just plain sticking around. Critics were divided, but Ebert named it the best film of the year and recently wrote an essay defending it against the haters. It, along with Capote, has also been nominated for a Director, Writer, and Producer's Guild award, and also for Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild, along with Supporting Actor nominations for Don Cheadle and Matt Dillon. It's not going away.
So anyway. With all that in mind (and the fact that I still have no idea what A History of Violence's chances are, as it has been ignored by some groups and adored by others), here are my official Globe predictions. If I may comment on these predictions just a little bit…if anybody upsets Ang Lee it will be George Clooney, as long as they don't go all star-struck with Spielberg. I might give Jeff Daniels and Laura Linney from The Squid and the Whale an outside shot. Don't write off Keira Knightley, either. And I'm quite lost in who will win the Supporting categories - Supporting Actor seems to be a race between Clooney and Dillon, and Supporting Actress seems to be a three-way tie between Weisz, Johannsen, and Williams. And the screenplay category is near-impossible: I can see every single nominee stealing it away. Decisions, decisions…
Oh, and if you happen to be reading this in the spare hours before the ceremony, be sure to check it out on NBC tonight.
BEST PICTURE - DRAMA:
Brokeback Mountain
BEST PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL:
Walk the Line
BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
BEST ACTOR - DRAMA:
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA:
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
BEST ACTOR - COMEDY OR MUSICAL:
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY OR MUSICAL:
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Matt Dillon, Crash
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
BEST SCREENPLAY:
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash
BEST FOREIGN FILM:
Paradise Now (Palestine)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Brokeback Mountain
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
"A Love That Will Never Grow Old", Brokeback Mountain
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