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Well, the Golden Globes were just announced. With it, as well as some critics groups such as the New York and L.A. Film Critics Associations coming out with their own awards, we're finally beginning to figure out what will make the short list when the Oscar nominations are announced.
The complete list of Globes nominations you can find here. (Or pretty much anywhere on the 'net if you searched for two seconds.) The Globes aren't a perfect precursor, but still, there are a few generalizations we can make from the surprises, snubs, and strong showings that they revealed.
Therefore, with the lessons of the Globes in mind, I've been able to make this batch list of all possibilities of Oscar nominations for Best Picture. (Also more than a little thanks to www.oscarwatch.com, which does this sort of thing better than I do.) It isn't perfect -- I'm sure in one or two cases people will get nominated that I don't even have on here -- but it's close. These are the movies you should be focusing on. Explanations are included, including how the Globes and the critics' awards have swayed the balance scales.
| The Frontrunners: |
| Brokeback Mountain: it's sweeping the critics awards and dominated the Golden Globes. I still have doubts about its wide-release box office potential ("honey, let's go see the gay cowboy movie"), but in limited release it's been blowing everybody away with a first-weekend theater average of over $100,000 (in comparison, Narnia opened to huge numbers in wide release with an average of 18,000). The only major Globe nomination it was missing was Jake Gyllenhaal for Supporting Actor, but it's a crowded category and he's been overshadowed by the nominated Heath Ledger anyway. Michelle Williams also managed a nomination for Supporting Actress for her more quietly buzzed about performance. At this point in the year, it's the frontrunner. |
| Good Night, and Good Luck: the other big winner at the Globes. Earlier on, people assumed it might not have the staying power to propel it to be an Oscar powerhouse, but it's appearing to prove them wrong, with Globe nominations for Picture, Director George Clooney, the screenplay by Clooney and grant Heslov, and -- most importantly -- actor David Strathairn, which indicates widespread support. If it stays strong, also look for Frank Langella to be a contender for Supporting Actor at the Oscars, even though he was left out here. (Read my own opinion here.) |
| Walk the Line: conventional wisdom compares it to Ray: even without the awards, it's been as strong of a critical hit and even bigger at the box office (whoever figured out it would play best as counter-programming to Harry Potter just got a raise), so it should get an Oscar Best Picture nomination just like Ray, right? Then you consider it has the awards backing it up as well: nominations for Picture (Musical or Comedy), Actor, and Actress. It got left out of the screenplay and director categories at the Globe, but -- hmm -- so did Ray, last year. Also supporting it: the fact that Reese Witherspoon gives one of the only major Best Actress-worthy performances of the year. (That's not against any of the enormously talented actresses out there; what I'm saying is that it's become increasingly clear that there are just plain not as many good roles for women out there. Even Witherspoon's role is essentially that of the love interest. But I'll save that column for another day.) (Read my own opinion here.) |
| The Possibilities: |
| Munich: what happened? Despite strong pre-release buzz that it was going to turn into the Movie to Beat, it got left out of the Best Picture race at the Globes, being relegated to only Director and Screenplay (and many say the Director nomination is partially to simply get Spielberg to come to the star-struck ceremony). But you know what? I'm not as worried as some of the other trackers out there. Some are writing it off, but I say it hasn't even come full swing yet. I mean let's face it…the movie's not even out yet. And Spielberg's new policy of not campaigning at all for the movie might be shaky in the short-run but rewarding in the long run (similar to Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby last year, but, to be fair, that one got a Globe nomination for Picture). One thing it did tell us, however, was that the Best Actor race might be narrowing: Eric Bana had been considered a stronger contender than he is now. We shall see. |
| Cinderella Man: meh. I haven't seen the film but personally I'm rooting against it. Why? Because it's the same team that made A Beautiful Mind, basically. So I'm biased. Therefore imagine my pleasant surprise when I discovered that it was left off the Globes list for Picture. Since this seems to be a very Globes-friendly production -- highbrow but mainstream talents like Crowe and Ron Howard -- consider it a blow against its Oscar chances. The nominations it did get were for Crowe and Giamatti. I've been guessing Giamatti all along to represent the movie in the Supporting Actor category, considering he was snubbed last year for Sideways (and according to some, even the year before for American Splendor). His nomination at the Globes bodes especially well because there's only one supporting actor category (unlike the two for actor and actresses: one for Drama and one for Comedy/Musical). Still, the campaigning blitz we're beginning to see for Cinderella Man might push it over the top into the Oscar nomination shortlist for Picture, despite its performance at the box office and with the Globes. |
| The Constant Gardener: now here's a below-the-radar movie that was actually given a big boost by the Globes. Constant Gardener beat out Cinderella Man, Syriana, and a host of other hopefuls to get a Picture nomination, despite it being released in September (and with a box office that was great for an independent film but still rather under the radar). Fernando Meirelles, who directed City of God, also got nominated for a Best Director Globe (Rachel Weisz also got a Best Supporting Actress nomination), and he might be looking at another surprise Oscar hit, but this time the sights are set as high as Best Picture. |
| A History of Violence: another fringe-ish movie to get a Globes boost. This one has always seemed to be teetering on the edge of possibility, and despite some prominent nominations it still seems quite shaky. David Cronenberg's tale was nominated for Picture as well as a surprise nomination for Maria Bello for Actress. But despite this it just seems even more baffling, because if it got nominated for Picture, it would do so on the strength of the much-buzzed-about star Viggo Mortensen, who for some reason was not nominated (nor was Cronenberg for Director). The reviews have all been great, but they've all emphasized that this is Mortensen's movie; nominating it for Picture but not Actor just doesn't make sense. I expected it to go the other way around. Therefore I really have no idea what to think about its chances. |
| The Producers: Chicago did it; why can't the Producers? Out of the two musicals released late this year, the Producers has a real shot at success. (I'm sorry to say it, but I think we can officially call Rent a flop. At best you could say it had "a tepid but decent critical response and adequate box office numbers", or you could just say the reviews weren't that good and it didn't make any money. It happens.) Anyway, the Producers was boosted by Globe nominations for Picture (Musical/Comedy), Actor (Nathan Lane), and, surprise, Supporting Actor for Will Ferrell. A lot of people are underestimating it, in my opinion, and they may be right. This is the type of movie where one thing above all stands as its biggest obstacle: business. If it makes a lot of money and becomes a surprise hit, a lot more people will be talking about it for its Oscar chances. As it stands, the buzz is low, but the Globes helped remind us that a musical can pay off big if it hits people the right way. |
| Match Point: Woody Allen is back in a big way with this drama that's been one of the surprise critical hits of the year. No one knew what to make of its chances, but the strong Globes showing prove that it’s a contender that's not going to go away without a fight: it was nominated for Picture, Supporting Actress (Scarlett Johanssen), Director, and Screenplay (both Allen). The usually comedic Allen seems to have his first hit in a long time doing a straight drama, and unlike some of the other potentials, since its nommed in both Director and Screenplay, it has depth in nominations that hopefuls like History of Violence, Syriana, and Cinderella Man don't have. Will it be strong enough to crack the Oscars? Thanks to the Globes, it just might be. |
| The Fringe: |
| Syriana: here's another movie that's been flying just below the frontrunner ranks that wasn't helped by the Globes. Its sole major nomination was for George Clooney for Best Supporting Actor, which may be due as much to Good Night, and Good Luck as it is to Syriana. Still, its hefty box office performance in wide release and good reviews could propel it to more Oscar nominations, most likely for screenplay, or even director if it really picks up. For now, though, the Traffic-esque tale might be looking at the end of the Best Picture road. |
| Memoirs of a Geisha: this was one of those movies that everybody thought was going to be a frontrunner until the reviews killed it. Well, that's a little harsh, because hey, the only reason I mention it is because it still has a solid shot. In fact, it just recently had a scorching debut in limited release which may translate into a box office success. The film is based on a well-regarded novel, directed by Rob Marshall (Chicago), and stars just about every non-action-hero Asian actor you can think of. So with all the good news, what's the bad? Well, it was essentially shut out of the Globes, except for a nomination for Ziyi Zhang (or Zhang Ziyi, but we're in America where the given name comes first, so I guess everybody's calling her Ziyi Zhang now)…but that's in the Actress category, quite possibly the category with the weakest competition. And it's gotten a decidedly yucky 26% on Rotten Tomatoes (at the moment it has 16 positive reviews and 40 negative reviews). The consensus seems to be that it's style and soap-opera over substance, which usually translates to a bunch of art/set/costume nominations and not much more. (Read my own opinion here.) |
| King Kong: now here's a movie that I think might be growing in popularity, as opposed to dying like the previous two. Peter Jackson's newest epic has somehow surprised us again in a remarkably similar way that the Fellowship of the Ring did back in '01: a big blockbuster that no one really expects will be a major contender comes out and gets some ridiculously good reviews that propel it into competition. Whether Kong will reach those heights is supremely doubtful (Fellowship got 13 nominations) but a Best Picture nomination is not totally out of the question, depending on how well the buzz sustains it. More likely is another nomination for Peter Jackson as director, who's (rightfully) been the target of most of the praise (and who got a Globe nomination). |
| Crash: the little film of early 2005 that won't go away. And for good reason: it got a shockingly good audience reception. There's a vocal minority of naysayers (the New York Times trashed it), but the controversy and the divisive theme of racism has made it the exception to the rule, the film that was released early on that people are still talking about to this day. Ebert just recently named it the best film of the year. It's long been discussed that acting nominations are more than possible, and the Globes seemed to agree, nominating Matt Dillon for Supporting Actor for his work as a racist cop. It also got a nomination for the screenplay by director Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco. No Picture nomination though; but considering its rumbling popularity, think of it as the darkest of dark horse candidates. (Read my own opinion here.) |
Those are my Big Thirteen. The movies that I believe will be narrowed down to five for a Best Picture nomination. But there were plenty of others that I've left out; its not like the Globes only nominated those thirteen films in all categories. There's plenty of films I think will be nominated for things but just don't have the heft for a Picture nomination. Here's a quick run-down of the other titles you'll see on the nominations list:
| Capote. Philip Seymour Hoffman is a lock for an Actor nomination, and at the moment, thanks to the critic awards, is the frontrunner for the win, ahead of Joaquin Pheonix and Heath Ledger. But for other nominations? Looks shaky: Hoffman's performance is the soul of the film. |
| North County. The problem with this movie is that it was a flop. Charlize Theron and Frances McDormand both got nominated for Globes for Actress and Supporting Actress, respectively. And thanks to the lack of female competition, they both have a shot. But I think the chances end there. |
| Mrs. Henderson Presents. A British comedy that will give Judi Dench her 87th nomination. It looks like it also may extend to Bob Hoskins for supporting actor as well, since he managed a Globes nomination. But I doubt it will break rank. |
| Pride and Prejudice. Although it was nominated for a Globe for Picture (Musical/Comedy), it seems like one of those well-respected movies that's thrown in to fill out the category. Keira Knightley has a shot; the movie's a hit, and she's gotten great reviews. But don't expect it to reach beyond that. |
| Hustle and Flow. This indie got a boost at the Globes by nominating up-and-comer Terrence Howard (also of Crash) for an Actor nomination. It's also been campaigning for a supporting actress nomination, but Howard's chances are limited at best, and that's as far as it's going to go. |
| The Squid and the Whale. Now here's a low-budget indie that got a real boost from the Globes thanks to its nominations for both its stars, Jeff Daniels and Laura Linney. Good luck to them, but it's an actor-driven movie, so that's where the nomination potential ends. |
| The Family Stone. Some very slight potential for Sarah Jessica Parker (nominated for an Actress Globe) and possibly Diane Keaton for Supporting Actress (who didn't get the Globe love). But the trailers don't look that funny and the buzz is fading. |
| Transamerica. Thanks, once again, to the lack of competition, Felicity Huffman has been gaining a lot of buzz for what would've ordinarily been an indie forgotten everywhere except the Independent Spirit Awards. But it looks like she has a shot for an Actress nomination (for playing a woman who was once a man but got a sex change...now doesn't the title take on a whole new meaning?) |
| The Chronicles of Narnia. Thanks to great opening weekend business, it looks like sequels could very well be underway. But it doesn't seem to have the epic spectacle of a Lord of the Rings that propels it to bigger things, and instead will probably play like a Harry Potter, getting some solid technical nominations. Speaking of which, the excellently-reviewed Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire will perform similarly. |
That's all for now. My next column will probably have my first official predictions list, with alternates and dark horses and all of that to cover my tracks. Until then…keep watching movies. There are plenty of worthy ones out right now.
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