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The Oscar season is already upon us! I never got around to doing a pre-season preview, so here I am with my first thoughts about the 2005 season. A number of films are shaping up to be contenders, and it's my job to help sort you through the abundance. I suppose the best way to do this is to break down each film and tell you what major awards each has a chance for -- at this point. Breakout performers always happen, so while I tried to make this list as comprehensive as possible, it's far from complete. In fact, I'll probably re-read it next year and laugh at how wrong it was. But hey! I'm the best you guys got! So sit down and listen, and make your own assumptions. The Best-Picture-possible-caliber movies come first, followed by the specialized ones (the ones only aiming for one or two choice nominations).
Overview: The infamous "gay cowboy movie", starring Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal and directed by Ang Lee, this is actually shaping up to be a strong Best Picture contender thanks to the wonderful response it got at the Toronto film festival, especially for star Ledger. The trailer smartly plays up the "epic love story" angle rather than the homosexual content, but in the current rather homophobic America, it could go either way: a movie that changes minds and hearts, or a movie that everybody refuses to see.
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Ang Lee), Actor (Heath Ledger), Supporting Actor (Jake Gyllenhaal), Adapted Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: it flops hard at the box office.
Overview: Clearly trying to cash in on the Lord of the Ring's success, this hopeful franchise tackles one of the other most popular fantasy series of the twentieth century. From the previews, it seems like it accomplishes its feat rather well, and seems on course to (hopefully) make a buttload of money from those that miss Gollum & The Gang. If Lord of the Rings didn't have Oscar clout (which it wasn't expected to), I wouldn't even be considering this for the top prizes. But after the remarkable award-time success of that trilogy, this one has a decent shot at carrying the torch.
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Tilda Swinton as the White Witch), Adapted Screenplay, and a buttload of technicals.
But it won't succeed if: reviews are anything less than stellar.
Overview: It's got the political clout and the credibility of George Clooney, who also appears in the upcoming Syriana and will thus probably be getting a lot of press. The story is timely and well-done, and the reviews are excellent. Does that translate to Oscar love?
oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Clooney), Actor (David Strathairn), Supporting Actor (Frank Langella), Original Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: its short running time makes it seem slight, or if it fizzles out with modest box office numbers.
Overview: Another timely movie, this one a recount of one marine's experience in the Gulf War. Has indie-cred with Peter Sarsgaard, Oscar-cred with Jamie Foxx and Chris Cooper, and upcoming-star-cred with Jake Gyllenhaal (who will also be getting plenty of press thanks to the one-two combination of this and Brokeback Mountain). Seems on course to be a hit, and Sam Mendes is the perfect against-type director to prove his versatility.
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Mendes), Actor (Gyllenhaal), Supporting Actor (Sarsgaard and Foxx), Adapted Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: critics and audiences don't both take to it.
Overview: Peter Jackson's new special effects extravaganza. It doesn't exactly seem like it has Oscar chances, but Jackson can pull a lot out of his sleeve. We know it'll get nominated for about five technical categories anyway, so, like Lord of the Rings, if it's a big enough phenomenon it might be impossible to ignore.
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Jackson), Supporting Actor (Jack Black), Adapted Screenplay, and all those technicals.
But it won't succeed if: it's judged as just another blockbuster.
Overview: First of all, it's Rob Marshall's follow-up project to Chicago. Secondly, it's based on an epic novel and stars just about every Asian star you've ever heard of. From the trailer, it definitely looks like Oscar bait.
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Marshall), various actors, Adapted Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: its foreign subject matter is met which apathy in the United States.
Overview: Steven Spielberg's fast-tracked project about the hostage crisis of the 1972 Munich Olympics. Stars Eric Bana. This year seems to mirror 1993, where he pulled out his special-effects extravaganza (Jurassic Park/War of the Worlds) in the summer, and unveiled his Oscar-bait drama (Schindler's List/Munich) in December. Worked once, why not now?
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Spielberg), Actor (Bana), Supporting Actor (Daniel Craig and Geoffrey Rush), Original Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: the fact that the film was ultra-rushed during production negatively impacts the quality.
Overview: Basically a life-action version of Pocahontas. Directed by crazy-man/Oscar-friendly director Terrence Malick (Badlands, The Thin Red Line). Looks like the production values are top-notch and the atmosphere looks downright creepy. Overall, the trailers make it seem really cool.
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Malick), Actor (Colin Farrell), Actress (Q'Orianka Kilcher), Supporting Actor (Christian Bale, Christopher Plummer), Original Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: it flops at the box office (or with critics) like Colin Farrell's last period-piece bomb, Alexander.
Overview: Story of the first sexual harrassment in the workplace lawsuit starring Charlize Theron.
Oscar Chances: Well it would have a lot, especially for Theron, except....
But it won't succeed if: ....it totally flopped at the box office. My guess is that it will be quickly forgotten.
Overview: An unabashed musical starring Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick. It worked on Broadway, so why not in the movies?
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Susan Stroman), Actor (Lane), Supporting Actor (Broderick), Supporting Actress (Uma Thurman), Adapted Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: it's negatively compared to its stage incarnation (or the 1968 film).
Overview: Adaptation of the Tony-award winning musical about living each day to the fullest, in between really good singing. (Can you tell I'm quickly losing the energy to write overviews of all of these?)
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Chris Columbus), Actress (Rosario Dawson), or the critics will probably pick out their favorite among the cast, Adapted Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: it's overshadowed by the other Broadway import. Or if the critics don't take a liking to the usually critically-unfriendly Columbus.
Overview: International multi-plot, multi-character thriller about oil in the Middle East. Feels very Traffic-ish (it's written/directed by Traffic's screenwriter) - and that one won four major Oscars.
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (Stephen Gaghan), Actor (George Clooney), Supporting Actor (Matt Damon), Supporting Actress (Amanda Peet), Adapted Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: actually, I can't think of a real downside. I guess the standard answer, then: if the box office or critical success is unexpectedly mediocre.
Overview: Biopic of Johnny Cash that's been getting good pre-release buzz. Joaquin Pheonix and Reese Witherspoon (in a good project again finally) are said to both be fantastic.
Oscar Chances: Picture, Director (James Mangold), Actor (Pheonix), Actress (Witherspoon), Original Screenplay.
But it won't succeed if: it never escapes from Ray's shadow.
Those are all what I call the "major contenders". The following movies are strong possibilities for a few nominations, but they're not trying to grab a Picture/Director/Actor/etc. sweep. So a quick rundown on what they're going for.
Best Actor, Bill Murray. Chances: weak.
Best Actor, Philip Seymour Hoffman. Chances: strong.
Whatever it can get after it flopped at the summer box office. Chances: weak.
Best Actor, Ralph Fiennes, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay. Chances: mediocre.
Numerous Best Supporting Actor nominations. Matt Dillon and Terrence Howard are the two strongest. Chances: strong.
Family-ensemble, so a Supporting Actor/Actress nomination. Chances: weak.
Many technicals. Chances: strong.
Best Actor, Viggo Mortensen. Chances: moderate to strong.
Best Actor, Terrence Howard. Chances: mediocre to weak.
Best Supporting Actress, Amy Adams. Chances: strong.
Best Actress, Judi Dench. Chances: strong.
Best Actress, Keira Knightley, Best Adapted Screenplay. Chances: weak.
Best Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow. Chances: mediocre.
Claire Danes, Steve Martin, Jason Schwartzmann all possibilities for acting noms. Chances: weak.
Actor, Jeff Daniels, and Actress, Laura Linney. Chances: moderate.
Actress, Joan Allen. Chances: weak.
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