Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 3:20 AM
These went up on TheCinemaSource this evening, but here they are with commentary. I realize nobody will be reading this before the nominations are announced - 5 hours from now - but hey, this is a hobby for me. Writing it all down is the easy part. Besides, I need proof when I get things 100% correct, right? (Sure, bud.)
The Academy Award nominations are announced bright and early tomorrow morning, so here are my final, official predictions for the eight main categories. Underneath each, I've listed a group of "other contenders" to let you know what else is in the running, but don't worry, I'm not hedging my bets - if one of the "other contenders" gets nominated, then I was wrong. If I don't mention something at all, it doesn't mean it's out of the race entirely - it just means it will be a major surprise when it makes it in. Without further ado:
BEST PICTURE:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Other contenders: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Into the Wild; American Gangster
Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood can be considered as locked as you can get. Juno has the best box office out of anything and is a safe bet for the Big Indie Movie (this year's Little Miss Sunshine or Sideways, if you will). That leaves the fifth slot. I'm a huge personal proponent of Into the Wild, but it was finally time to let it go; I've always considered it to be the likely 6th or 7th choice, and it looks to end up that way here as well.
Many people are jumping on the Diving Bell and the Butterfly bandwagon thanks to its surprisingly strong showing in the Producers and Directors Guild nominations, but I think when it comes down to it, the Academy will go with what they know: an upscale, awards-baiting British film. Atonement. It's on shaky ground - it was snubbed in all those guild awards that Diving Bell did so well in - but I bet it makes it in. But hey, if I'm wrong and Into the Wild sneaks in, I'd be very happy.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Other contenders: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Joe Wright, Atonement
Every year, there's always a surprise nominee in this category - Fernando Meirelles for City of God, Paul Greengrass for United 93, and so on. Many people were expecting Julian Schnabel to fill that role - until he won the Golden Globe and his film started getting major attention and he became anything but a surprise. So I'm sticking in my biggest no guts, no glory contender: Sidney Lumet for Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. The Academy skews old, which means the 82-year-old Lumet might still have a lot more fans than people are counting on, and the film was a critical success.
You'll notice that my Picture/Director nominations only match up 2 out of 5. That's a pretty good indication that I've miscalculated somewhere down the road - usually it's more like a 4 out of 5 match. Michael Clayton feels like it will be seen as more of a writing achievement than a directing achievement, but then again I've underestimated it all along. Joe Wright, meanwhile, is quite viable as well. But Schnabel, the Coens, and Anderson feel quite solid, with Penn right behind them.
BEST ACTOR:
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Other contenders: Denzel Washington, American Gangster; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd; James McAvoy, Atonement
Clooney and Day-Lewis are locked, locked, locked. I was certain that Mortensen would get snubbed all along, so I'm still worried about him - he was ignored for A History of Violence, and Eastern Promises didn't have anywhere near that film's box office. Hirsch I'm also worried about, but I think thats jitters that goes along with really wanting him to be recognized. Ryan Gosling I'm actually skeptical about - very few people actually saw Lars and the Real Girl, and he already got his hot-young-actor nomination for a better performance - last year's Half Nelson.
But then again, I'm even more skeptical about Johnny Depp. Yes, he won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical, but that's actually a bit of a curse - with the exception of Joaquin Phoenix, I'm pretty sure the past five winners in that award have gone on not to get an Oscar nomination. James McAvoy hasn't garnered enough attention - and the Screen Actors Guild snubbed Atonement altogether - but you can never really count out Denzel Washington.
BEST ACTRESS:
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Other contenders: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Keira Knightley, Atonement; Laura Linney, The Savages
Christie, Cotillard, and Page feel good. Jolie is also well-liked in Hollywood - oh, and she gave a great performance - and looks to get nominated despite her film tanking. That leaves the fifth slot; due to the box office success of Enchanted and the Academy's penchant for young women, I'm putting Amy Adams in there. Elizabeth: The Golden Age was badly received (although Blanchett has plenty of fans in the Academy), Keira Knightley doesn't have the buzz, and Laura Linney...well, she could be a surprise if there's a large enough minority that's a big proponent of her work.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Other contenders: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men; Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
I could definitely see Tommy Lee Jones showing up in this category in favor of Holbrook or Hoffman. Otherwise, things look pretty much locked in place. Affleck made a stir in some critics groups, but the award is Javier Bardem's to lose.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Other contenders: Catherine Keener,
Into the Wild; Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
It might be quite stupid to put Jennifer Garner in here, because she's gotten no love from SAG or the Golden Globes or anyone. But her name is persistently mentioned, and again, the Academy has a thing about talented young women. Then again, it could also be someone out of left field - like Vanessa Redgrave and her six-minute role in Atonement - but that would be something the Golden Globes would do, not the Oscars. Keener, with a SAG nomination, could easily sneak in; Ronan is a more distant alternative.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Other contenders: Steve Zaillian, American Gangster; Judd Apatow, Knocked Up; Steven Knight, Eastern Promises
This category looks fairly locked up. I continue to be skeptical of Lars and the Real Girl, but that's more of an opinion thing than anything else; like in many of the top categories, it's conceivable but unlikely that American Gangster could have a stronger showing than anticipated. I'd love to see Knocked Up make it in, but if The 40-Year-Old Virgin, which was more age-appropriate to the Academy, didn't, then why this one?
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
Other contenders: Sean Penn, Into the Wild; Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson’s War
Both other contenders are major alternatives. The Coens and Anderson are quite locked, and I feel good about Diving Bell, but I could see some other creative shuffling. Zodiac is on shaky ground indeed, and while I'm betting that the Academy will take to Atonement, if they don't, Hampton's out. I'd love to stick Penn in there, but I feel like voters are looking at him more as the director than the writer. Similarly, Sorkin might get left out because of a different kind of assumption: that he's a TV writer, not a feature writer. Of course, now I'm assuming about assumptions. But that's what Oscar predicting is all about, right?
The Academy Award nominations are announced bright and early tomorrow morning, so here are my final, official predictions for the eight main categories. Underneath each, I've listed a group of "other contenders" to let you know what else is in the running, but don't worry, I'm not hedging my bets - if one of the "other contenders" gets nominated, then I was wrong. If I don't mention something at all, it doesn't mean it's out of the race entirely - it just means it will be a major surprise when it makes it in. Without further ado:
BEST PICTURE:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Other contenders: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Into the Wild; American Gangster
Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood can be considered as locked as you can get. Juno has the best box office out of anything and is a safe bet for the Big Indie Movie (this year's Little Miss Sunshine or Sideways, if you will). That leaves the fifth slot. I'm a huge personal proponent of Into the Wild, but it was finally time to let it go; I've always considered it to be the likely 6th or 7th choice, and it looks to end up that way here as well.
Many people are jumping on the Diving Bell and the Butterfly bandwagon thanks to its surprisingly strong showing in the Producers and Directors Guild nominations, but I think when it comes down to it, the Academy will go with what they know: an upscale, awards-baiting British film. Atonement. It's on shaky ground - it was snubbed in all those guild awards that Diving Bell did so well in - but I bet it makes it in. But hey, if I'm wrong and Into the Wild sneaks in, I'd be very happy.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Other contenders: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Joe Wright, Atonement
Every year, there's always a surprise nominee in this category - Fernando Meirelles for City of God, Paul Greengrass for United 93, and so on. Many people were expecting Julian Schnabel to fill that role - until he won the Golden Globe and his film started getting major attention and he became anything but a surprise. So I'm sticking in my biggest no guts, no glory contender: Sidney Lumet for Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. The Academy skews old, which means the 82-year-old Lumet might still have a lot more fans than people are counting on, and the film was a critical success.
You'll notice that my Picture/Director nominations only match up 2 out of 5. That's a pretty good indication that I've miscalculated somewhere down the road - usually it's more like a 4 out of 5 match. Michael Clayton feels like it will be seen as more of a writing achievement than a directing achievement, but then again I've underestimated it all along. Joe Wright, meanwhile, is quite viable as well. But Schnabel, the Coens, and Anderson feel quite solid, with Penn right behind them.
BEST ACTOR:
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Other contenders: Denzel Washington, American Gangster; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd; James McAvoy, Atonement
Clooney and Day-Lewis are locked, locked, locked. I was certain that Mortensen would get snubbed all along, so I'm still worried about him - he was ignored for A History of Violence, and Eastern Promises didn't have anywhere near that film's box office. Hirsch I'm also worried about, but I think thats jitters that goes along with really wanting him to be recognized. Ryan Gosling I'm actually skeptical about - very few people actually saw Lars and the Real Girl, and he already got his hot-young-actor nomination for a better performance - last year's Half Nelson.
But then again, I'm even more skeptical about Johnny Depp. Yes, he won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical, but that's actually a bit of a curse - with the exception of Joaquin Phoenix, I'm pretty sure the past five winners in that award have gone on not to get an Oscar nomination. James McAvoy hasn't garnered enough attention - and the Screen Actors Guild snubbed Atonement altogether - but you can never really count out Denzel Washington.
BEST ACTRESS:
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Other contenders: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Keira Knightley, Atonement; Laura Linney, The Savages
Christie, Cotillard, and Page feel good. Jolie is also well-liked in Hollywood - oh, and she gave a great performance - and looks to get nominated despite her film tanking. That leaves the fifth slot; due to the box office success of Enchanted and the Academy's penchant for young women, I'm putting Amy Adams in there. Elizabeth: The Golden Age was badly received (although Blanchett has plenty of fans in the Academy), Keira Knightley doesn't have the buzz, and Laura Linney...well, she could be a surprise if there's a large enough minority that's a big proponent of her work.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Other contenders: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men; Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
I could definitely see Tommy Lee Jones showing up in this category in favor of Holbrook or Hoffman. Otherwise, things look pretty much locked in place. Affleck made a stir in some critics groups, but the award is Javier Bardem's to lose.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Other contenders: Catherine Keener,
Into the Wild; Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
It might be quite stupid to put Jennifer Garner in here, because she's gotten no love from SAG or the Golden Globes or anyone. But her name is persistently mentioned, and again, the Academy has a thing about talented young women. Then again, it could also be someone out of left field - like Vanessa Redgrave and her six-minute role in Atonement - but that would be something the Golden Globes would do, not the Oscars. Keener, with a SAG nomination, could easily sneak in; Ronan is a more distant alternative.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Other contenders: Steve Zaillian, American Gangster; Judd Apatow, Knocked Up; Steven Knight, Eastern Promises
This category looks fairly locked up. I continue to be skeptical of Lars and the Real Girl, but that's more of an opinion thing than anything else; like in many of the top categories, it's conceivable but unlikely that American Gangster could have a stronger showing than anticipated. I'd love to see Knocked Up make it in, but if The 40-Year-Old Virgin, which was more age-appropriate to the Academy, didn't, then why this one?
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
Other contenders: Sean Penn, Into the Wild; Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson’s War
Both other contenders are major alternatives. The Coens and Anderson are quite locked, and I feel good about Diving Bell, but I could see some other creative shuffling. Zodiac is on shaky ground indeed, and while I'm betting that the Academy will take to Atonement, if they don't, Hampton's out. I'd love to stick Penn in there, but I feel like voters are looking at him more as the director than the writer. Similarly, Sorkin might get left out because of a different kind of assumption: that he's a TV writer, not a feature writer. Of course, now I'm assuming about assumptions. But that's what Oscar predicting is all about, right?
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1 Comments:
Nice predictions Michael, now you need to give us a post with the real ones too. You know this is the only place where I get any news about movies whatsoever. Plus, that Teeth movie could be the most unnecessary and revolting idea ever.
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