Originally, it was the overarching plots and the characters that made Veronica Mars so great. Season 1 was a brilliant bit of television. So far, in this third season, the show has had flat-out bad overarching storylines and reduced its characters to vaguely unlikable versions of their former selves. Thus the chance for it to be redeemed fell on its weakest aspect: the self-contained mysteries of the week.

These were always hit-and-miss; even in the first season we got such gems as Veronica searching for the missing school mascot. The third season has had treasures such as a search for a football player's playbook, and heading into last night's episode I was ready to just say no to the show completely. Studio 60 had been so terrible on Monday, I was ready to just go back to the days when Lost was my only TV exposure.

This is all a lengthy lead-up to say that I was pleasantly surprised with the mystery of the week this week. Previous bit-part character Max wants to find a girl he met one night whom he thought was "the one." Simple enough. But unlike some recent cases (which can generally be summed up as "the culprit is the extraneous character, but not the obvious extraneous character"), we actually got twists, turns, and even a nice bit of feeling. I was a little bit moved.

First it turns out she was a prostitute hired by Max's friends. Then it turns out she actually liked him. Then it turns out she was conning him, but then it turns out that she actually wasn't -- etc., etc. All of this was actually genuinely interesting. And the unabashed unhappy ending -- the couple grew disillusioned after Max had bought her out of her occupation -- was a great sad payoff.

Some other notes about the episode:

-Hooray, Logan's reveal that he had fooled around with another girl during his and Veronica's break was dealt with anti-climactically without a tired "Veronica gets upset" plotline. But oh wait...she finds out about that other chick (who's apparently been on the show before even though I don't remember her at all) and gets all upset. Yay.

-Nice of Keith to single-handedly continue on with the overarching plotline of Dean O'Dell's murder. Or suicide. (Murder.) His subplot was OK even though it featured the unwelcome return of that constantly-bitchy feminist sorority or whatever it is.

-Great to see all the characters...last week, I mean. This week there's no Piz, Parker, Mac, or most notably, Wallace. To where the heck did Wallace disappear? Not like the show knows how to use him anymore anyway, but c'mon...he's Wallace.

Look, it's Dawn from the BBC Office. She's actually getting a bigger and bigger part on Studio 60, and she's charming. I hope she stays. See, I have to look at the good, because man, this was a bad episode. Let's hurt ourselves a little more by recounting why this episode was only slightly less painful than the poop you take after eating a casserole made entirely of bran, beans, and Mexican food.

-Harriet continues to be an uppity brat with a horrid sense of entitlement. Exactly why was she so mad at Matt? Because he threw away twenty thousand dollars on a foolish whim? Heavens, no. She was mad at him because it was more about competing with what's-his-name than it was about wooing her. Or something.

-Danny and Jordan get stuck on the roof. Really, Aaron Sorkin? You're really gonna pull out one of the worst romantic-comedy cliches ever? Here's a tip: admitting the cliche doesn't make it not a cliche. That's actually a fault in my own writing, but we're talking about you here, buddy.

-What's with all the endless recapping conversations about what's happened in past episode? Jack's endlessly complicated subplot was kind of interesting the first three times I heard him explain it.

-Oh look, it's the only potentially cute couple on the show, Lucy and Tom. Oh look, unnecessary complication with the whole forced-dinner-with-the-Asian-chick thing. Oh well, still cute. Oh, but wait -- wait -- no -- no -- NO -- NO -- give me a break. They actually just did the whole "lie to her because my friend tells me to, even though she'll obviously find out soon and get mad at me, even though there was no freakin' reason to lie to her in the first place." This is a much more reprehensible and even more tired cliche than the whole stuck-on-the-roof thing. It's just so stupid on so many levels.

For the first time I'm considering just giving up on this show.

Here's the second part of my post-nominations article, in which you get to read my long-winded ruminations on what this year's set of nominations Mean. Sound like fun? Excellent! And away we go...

Top Snubs:

1. Dreamgirls misses out on Best Picture and Director. This is the biggie this year. Best Director wouldn't have raised too many eyebrows because of the category's competition and the Academy's penchant to award unobvious choices in that category. So United 93's Paul Greengrass taking Bill Condon's spot? Fine. But Dreamgirls losing out on Best Picture, too? What we're looking at here is a case of too much hype, too early -- dating back to the Cannes Film Festival, where an exclusive fifteen or so minutes of the film was shown. Sometimes hype just can't last that long. Another theory? It was a musical and an all African-American cast, and the Academy is largely a body of white males. But while those no doubt were factors, the New York Times has a more specific, plausible explanation:

The decision to send out screeners of the movie late was built on hubris — the same reason that Parmount/DreamWorks chose to charge $25 for early peeks at the movie — which suggested that it was an Important Film that must be seen on a big screen. But the death of President Gerald Ford, combined with a national holiday, meant that most academy members did not get the film until Jan. 3, 10 days after they had received “Letters From Iwo Jima,” a movie that wasn’t even supposed to come out in 2006. That means that academy members saw the hype long before they saw “Dreamgirls” and had just 10 days to see it before they voted.

2. Volver misses out on Best Foreign Language Film. This one is much less interesting than the Dreamgirls snub. It just seems like an oversight -- the Academy loves Pedro Almodovar, as can be witnessed by the Oscar successes of Talk to Her and All About My Mother (although last year's Bad Education got nada), so the possible excuse that these are female-driven films doesn't work. And Penelope Cruz was nominated for Best Actress. So why was it left off this in favor of much more obscure foreign titles like After the Wedding? Your guess is as good as mine.

3. The Adapted Screenplay category is giving me a headache. The snub here in question is Jason Reitman's satire of spin and the tobacco industry, Thank You For Smoking, which many thought would get a nomination. It was left off in favor of, yes, my worst fear, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan. (See the bad grammar in the title? Ho, ho, chuckle. That Borat sure is a character). Now that movies which are at least 50% unscripted can get nominated for script awards, how can I trust the Academy anymore whatsoever?

But then...oh, look at that, they did nominate Children of Men, which I was rooting for all the way and totally deserves it. So the voters for this category were both monumentally stupid...and really smart. In other words, total jerks.

Top Surprises:

1. Everything about The Departed's cast. First, Leonardo DiCaprio is nominated for Best Actor not for The Departed, but for Blood Diamond. Despite the similar SAG nomination, how does that make sense? The Departed has grossed 120+ million and also boasts nominations for most other major awards; Blood Diamond has grossed about 30 million, got worse reviews, and has only Supporting Actor backing it up in major awards. Don't ask me.

Then there's the Supporting Actor switcheroo: Mark Wahlberg got in instead of perennial favorite Jack Nicholson. This one was still a surprise but slightly easier to understand retrospectively. Many critics called out Nicholson's performance as being too over-the-top, while Wahlberg provided, to many, both the humor and moral center of the film. They were both nominated for a Golden Globe and both snubbed for a SAG nomination; between the two of them, I'm happy that first-timer Wahlberg got in, even though I didn't predict him.

2. Pan's Labyrinth walks away with six nominations. Yup, six nominations for a Spanish-language fantasy fairy tale with no Oscar pedigree from the director of Hellboy. It did, however, boast some rave reviews and strong box office within the limited release it's had so far. A Foreign-Language Film nomination was expected, but it officially crossed over into mainstream with nominations for Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Makeup, and Original Score.

3. Film Editing is a bit livelier than usual. So I know nobody really cares about this category, but you should for two reasons: (1) I do, and (2) oddly enough, the Editing category has long had a direct correlation to the Best Picture category...I don't have the stats in front of me, but the winner of Editing is usually the winner of Picture. This year only two of the nominations matched up (Babel and The Departed), while it was rounded out by Blood Diamond, United 93, and Children of Men.

As far as my predictions go...

-Everything is 20/20 in hindsight, but I shouldn't have stayed quite as "safe" with my director predictions. Condon always seemed the weak point, so why didn't I follow my own advice that Director is an offbeat category and throw somebody like Paul Greengrass in there? It was lazy of me.

-I similarly screwed up Supporting Actor. While my personal bias led me to leave off Alan Arkin (he was good, but I assumed his part was too small), where my bias could've helped was with Mark Wahlberg, whom I was rooting for. Instead I threw Michael Sheen on there from The Queen, which I'm disappointed didn't pan out, especially after seeing the film. He was excellent.

-So who will the winners be? This race is strange in that for the first time in recent memory, there's no clear frontrunner for Best Picture. Leading the five by a smidge is probably Babel, simply because it has the most nominations of the Picture nominees. The box office needs a significant boost within the next few weeks, though. The Departed was damaged slightly by DiCaprio's Blood Diamond switch, but since Scorsese is still the frontrunner for Director, I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be thrilled) if it pulled through for Picture as well. The dark horse is definitely Letters from Iwo Jima, but the subtitles might cancel out the God-like pull of Clint Eastwood. And wouldn't it be interesting if all these choices were split and The Queen came out as the winner?

-Aside from Best Picture, the major categories seem like remarkably easy calls: Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, Jennifer Hudson, Eddie Murphy, and Martin Scorsese. The screenplays are slightly tougher: The Departed is the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay, while Original Screenplay is a surprising conundrum. If Babel wins Best Picture, it could be supprted by this category, Little Miss Sunshine seems the most screenplay-y, and The Queen was the surprise winner at the Globes. Right now, in my mind, the scales are tipping toward The Queen. But I'm sure I'll overthink all of it in the coming weeks.

Our favorite modern-day Nancy Drew is back. (A cheesy description for a show that's gotten cheesier.) As I said before in my Studio 60 post, these TV commentaries are going to get a lot shorter for all of our sanities. (Except Lost's - because Lost remains awesome. Screw the haters.)

I know I've complained before - a lot - about how Seasons 1 and 2 were so much better to Veronica, so I won't get into that, but it was all I kept thinking about during it's 2007 return, a fairly self-contained show entitled "Show Me the Monkey." Well, I won't get into it much. Allow me the next paragraph:

Man, think of how great the overarching story was season 1. Not just the Lilly Kane mystery - there was all this surrounding intrigue with Weevil's gang, Logan being a jerk, everyone in general hating Veronica and her dad, the friendship between Veronica and Wallace actually being really cool, and so on. Sometimes each episode's self-contained mysteries were a little lame, sure, but what made them interesting was the environment in which they were being solved. Veronica doesn't have the baggage she had during that inaugaral year, and Hearst is a pathetically vapid setting compared to Neptune High. In this episode, as she sat in the cafeteria complaining via voice-over about Logan being there too, I thought -- really? This is what Veronica's famous (and usually deserved) angst amounts to this time? Whining about an ex-boyfriend? I've lit a candle for the good old days.

See? That was only one paragraph. Onto some notes about this episode, which despite my attitude wasn't that bad thanks to some supporting players:

-Notice how much cooler Mac was than Veronica? I did too. Her nerves with that guy from P.H.A.T. (cute name, writers) were cute and she was still able to retain her edge. I was charmed.

-Remember how at first I wrote Parker off, and then I decided to like her when I realized she was attractive? She's actually kind of cool, too. I have no idea why. She just seems like a nice girl. Maybe Veronica being so lame lately is making me look at all the other girls on the show in a new light.

-So yeah, at the end of the episode Veronica and Logan got together. Gag. Why do writers STILL fall into the trap of putting the central romance together too soon? I thought they had wisened up when Logan broke up with her last episode, but they're back together already? Terrible. Of course, in the meantime Logan hooked up with some surfer girl, so we can expect that revelation to screw things up down the road. Boring...boring...boring. Hint: keep them apart, stop Logan from sulking so much and give him back his edge, and turn Veronica into a victim somehow to make her likable again. That conversation with Piz at the end (you know, when she was leading him on like crazy) was just depressing.

It's nearing the end of January, and all those network shows are coming back. In order to keep everyone's sanity intact (mine above all) expect shorter-than-before TV commentaries...unless the show in question is Lost.

So here we are with the Studio 60 crew again. And I'm happy/sad to say that I'm loving/hating it as much as I have been. The overview:

-Danny has gotten to the "creepy" stage. He's stalking Jordan. Not good. Are we suppose to think it's creepy? Maybe, but Aaron Sorkin clearly wants you to sympathize with him, too. Sorry, buddy -- what was so sweet in the Christmas episode has just plain gone weird.

-The whole plotline about Matt trying to win the date with Harriet was, sadly, another example of Sorkin miscalculating his characters' actions. A complaint about the show has always been about treating a television show like it's life or death when all these people could conceivably described as self-involved filthy-rich idiots, right? Well this episode we have our lead protagonist throwing away some $10,000 so another guy won't get to date his dream girl.

-That new chick with Jordan? Very off-putting. I guess that's the intention, but I'm not looking forward to seeing her again.

-Once again, the best parts of the show are the parts that actually deal with what the show is supposedly about (how novel!): the show-within-the-show. (Yes, I just said "show" four times in one sentence.) What I'm getting at is the non-Harriet cast members, and the two writers, Darius and Lucy. Lucy with Tom Jeter is actually a budding relationship I could get behind (a first for the show), and the argument between Darius and Simon was intriguing.

Well this turned out to be one very eventful year with more than a handful of surprises. I say, bring them on -- boring years are good for predictions but not much else (and my predictions this year, as you'll see below, fared about average).

There's a lot to talk about and a lot to think about, but this year I'm splitting this usually massive article up into two parts. Tomorrow you'll get my extended commentary, a few rants, a few raves, the lowdown on the big snubs and the big surprises, and my first inkling of who the winners will be. Tonight, you get the fun part: lists and charts! Lots of lists and charts. Well, I think it's fun, so you should too.

The Nominations! (vs. My Predictions)

Real Nominations	Predicted Nominations
BEST PICTURE
The Departed	The Departed
Babel	Babel
Little Miss Sunshine	Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen	The Queen
Letters from Iwo Jima	Dreamgirls
BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez-Innaritu, Babel	Alejandro Gonzalez-Innaritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed	Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima	Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen	Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93	Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
BEST ACTOR
Peter O'Toole,Venus	PeterO'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness	Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland	Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond	Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson	Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Volver	Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal	Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen	Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada	Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children	Kate Winslet, Little Children
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children	Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Honsou, Blood Diamond	Djimon Honsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls	Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed	Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine	Michael Sheen, The Queen
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza, Babel	Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal	Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine	Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls	Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel	Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Little Miss Sunshine	Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen	The Queen
Pan's Labyrinth	Pan's Labyrinth
Babel	Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima	United 93
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Children of Men	Children of Men
The Departed	The Departed
Little Children	Little Children
Notes on a Scandal	Notes on a Scandal
Borat	Thank You for Smoking

And the rest of the nominations...

Animated Feature:
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

Art Direction:
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige

Cinematography:
The Black Dahlia
Children of Men
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige

Costume Design:
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Queen

Documentary Feature:
Deliver us from Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country

Documentary Short:
The Blood of Yingzhou District
Recycled Life
Rehearsing a Dream
Two Hands

Film Editing:
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
The Departed
United 93

Foreign Language Film:
After the Wedding
Days of Glory (Indigenes)
The Lives of Others
Pan's Labyrinth
Water

Makeup:
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth

Original Score:
Babel
The Good German
Notes on a Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

Original Song:
"I Need to Wake Up," An Inconvenient Truth
"Listen," Dreamgirls
"Love You I Do," Dreamgirls
"Our Town," Cars
"Patience," Dreamgirls

Animated Short:
The Danish Poet
Lifted
The Little Matchgirl
Maestro
No Time for Nuts

Live-Action Short:
Binta and the Great Idea (Binta y la Gran Idea)
Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)
Helmer & Son
The Saviour
West Bank Story

Sound Editing:
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of our Fathers
Letters from Iwo Jima
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Sound Mixing:
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Visual Effects:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns

Tallies for Each Film

8 Nominations:

• Dreamgirls (Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Art Direction, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, Original Song x3)

7 Nominations:

• Babel (Picture, Directior, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress x2, Film Editing, Original Score)

6 Nominations:

• The Queen (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Costume Design)
• Pan's Labyrinth (Foreign-Language Film, Original Screenplay, Art Direction, Cinematography, Makeup, Original Score)

5 Nominations:

• The Departed (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Film Editing)
• Blood Diamond (Actor, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)

4 Nominations:

• Letters from Iwo Jima (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Sound Editing)
• Little Miss Sunshine (Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress)
• Notes on a Scandal (Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Original Score)
• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Visual Effects, Art Direction, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)

3 Nominations:

• Little Children (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
• Children of Men (Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography)
• Apocalypto (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Makeup)

2 Nominations:

• United 93 (Director, Film Editing)
• The Devil Wears Prada (Actress, Costume Design)
• An Inconvenient Truth (Documentary Feature, Original Song)
• Cars (Animated Feature, Original Song)
• The Prestige (Art Direction, Cinematography)
• Flags of our Fathers (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

1 Nomination:

• Half Nelson (Actor)
• The Last King of Scotland (Actor)
• Venus (Actor)
• The Pursuit of Happyness (Actor)
• Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Adapted Screenplay)
• Volver (Actress)
• Deliver us from Evil (Documentary Feature)
• Iraq in Fragments (Documentary Feature)
• Jesus Camp (Documentary Feature)
• My Country, My Country (Documentary Feature)
• After the Wedding (Foreign Language Film)
• Days of Glory (Indigenes) (Foreign Language Film)
• The Lives of Others (Foreign Language Film)
• Water (Foreign Language Film)
• Happy Feet (Animated Feature)
• Monster House (Animated Feature)
• The Good Shepherd (Art Direction)
• The Good German (Original Score)
• The Black Dahlia (Cinematography)
  
• The Illusionist (Cinematography)
• Curse of the Golden Flower (Costume Design)
• Marie Antoinette (Costume Design)
• Click (Makeup)
• Poseidon (Visual Effects)
• Superman Returns (Visual Effects)
• ...and the 14 films of the three short-film categories
  

So How Did I Do?

My own predictions fared on a perfectly average level compared to the past. I got all the Actresses in both categories correct, offset by 2 wrong in each of the Actor categories. And since for Picture, Director, and the two Screenplay categories I got one wrong each, I averaged 4/5 and I was 80% correct.

That's it for tonight! Stay tuned for my extended commentary tomorrow!

(Note for the casual reader: DGA, WGA, and SAG refer to the Directors Guild, the Writers Guild, and the Screen Actors Guild, respectively.)

The strange thing about this year’s race is that there are no frontrunners. Or, there are a lot of frontrunners. For the 2003 race, it was Return of the King all the way, with Mystic River hovering behind it. In 2004, it was Million Dollar Baby vs. The Aviator. Last year was a bitter fight to the end between Brokeback Mountain and Crash.

This year, while there seems to be a consensus about what will be nominated for Best Picture, who really knows? Dreamgirls has lost some steam and the reviews weren’t unanimous. The Departed lost the Best Picture – Drama award at the Golden Globes to Babel, which has mixed reviews and a (currently) pitiful box office. Little Miss Sunshine seems to fit the requisite indie slot – but the Academy has never liked comedies. The Queen? Well, The Queen is a fairly sure thing for a nomination. But it won’t win.

I’m very tempted, in light of all this, to say that the nomination announcements tomorrow morning will be extremely surprising, with a lot of dark horse inclusions. Naomi Watts for The Painted Veil? Sure! Children of Men’s Alfonso Cuaron for Best Director? Bring him on! Pan’s Labyrinth cracking any major award that’s not called Best Foreign Language Film? How cool would that be?

However, from experience we know that the Academy Award nominations are rarely revelatory. For every nomination that City of God or Talk to Her swipes out of nowhere, everything else pretty much follows the general consensus of predictions very closely. So while there may in fact be a few surprises (come on, Children of Men!), I’m not expecting any miracles.

Then again, Academy hero Clint Eastwood released two major Oscar-baiting films this fall and neither of them caught much of any buzz. So anything’s possible.

BEST PICTURE:

Dreamgirls

The Departed

Babel

The Queen

Little Miss Sunshine

Notes:

-The best chance for an upset here is Letters from Iwo Jima replacing Little Miss Sunshine. I can’t help but think Clint Eastwood has magical powers with the Academy…or maybe he just makes really good films.

-United 93 remains a complete wild card. It won a lot of critics society awards and is a real potential for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. My own feeling remains that not enough Academy members have brought themselves to see it (unlike the critics, who generally had to). But more so than any other film in memory, it has the potential to wreak havoc on the nominations if it has quietly gained enough support.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Alejandro Gonzalez-Inarritu, Babel

Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima

Bill Condon, Dreamgirls

Stephen Frears, The Queen

Notes:

-Letters of Iwo Jima has been low-key enough that it could really swing either way – a complete snub (which is what happened with the Director’s Guild) is not out of the question. However, I think if they award it anywhere, it will be here.

-Get ready to hear the phrase “is this Martin Scorsese’s year?” a lot.

-In most recent years, there has been an out-of-left-field Director nominee. So while my heart says Alfonso Cuaron, it stands to reason that the true dark horse could be Pan’s Labyrinth’s Guillermo Del Toro.

BEST ACTOR:

Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed

Peter O’Toole, Venus

Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness

Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

Notes:

-The acting winners this year are the easiest things to call at the moment. So far, Whitaker, Mirren, Murphy, and Hudson are all solid frontrunners.

-While Pursuit of Happyness wasn’t an out-and-out critical hit, it’s hard to ignore a Will Smith feel-good movie that grosses 150+ million stateside.

-The critics and press were aroused way too much by Borat for me to think that they’ll ignore him. They love this guy. If Johnny Depp got in for the first Pirates, I don’t see why Sacha Baron Cohen can’t.

-Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson is the underdog favorite, and he’s got a SAG award to back him up. He has a more than solid shot, but who does he replace? Conventional wisdom says Cohen, but could DiCaprio get shut out as a result of a split between The Departed and Blood Diamond?

BEST ACTRESS:

Helen Mirren, The Queen

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Kate Winslet, Little Children

Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal

Penelope Cruz, Volver

Notes:

-By far the easiest race to call. As is usual, the Best Actress race never has much competition and frontrunners are established early. Annette Bening looked strong for Running with Scissors until the movie flopped with audiences and critics.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

Jack Nicholson, The Departed

Djimon Honsou, Blood Diamond

Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children

Michael Sheen, The Queen

Notes:

-By far the hardest race to call. Too many options without enough clear frontrunners.

-The SAG awards, which are usually a solid precursor, got screwed up when DiCaprio was placed in Supporting Actor for The Departed, probably taking one of his own co-star’s slots. So while I would love for Mark Wahlberg to get in as well, I’ll go with Jack Nicholson. But the male supporting cast is so strong in that movie that a split between the two of them, potentially along with Matt Damon, could leave them all out.

-Alan Arkin is taking Michael Sheen’s place on most prediction lists, but I think the nominations sweep of The Queen in the top categories (Picture, Actress, Director, Screenplay) will usher in Sheen as well. The Academy loves a good British movie.

-So what happens to Alan Arkin? I may be fatally underestimating Little Miss Sunshine here, but his role just seems too small, without any “big scene” to stand out in voters’ minds. He’ll probably make it in, but hey: no guts, no glory.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Adriana Barraza, Babel

Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal

Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine

Notes:

-I’m sticking with the SAG awards on this one, 5 for 5. No one else seems strong enough. Adriana Barraza has surprised me with her prevalence in the precursors – Rinko Kikuchi seemed to get most of the critical love for Babel -- but her inclusion in the Golden Globe nominations reassures me.

-Could Half Nelson’s Shareeka Epps pull a dark horse nomination? I’d say it was possible if there wasn’t already another cute kid on the ballot, and Breslin was the one to get the SAG nomination.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

The Queen

Little Miss Sunshine

Babel

Pan’s Labyrinth

United 93

Notes:

-Fearing a surprise showing by United 93, I’m placing it here, where critically lauded films that are snubbed in other categories tend to go. In that vein, I’m also including the late-in-the-game buzz-grabber Pan’s Labyrinth.

-The other three nominations are sure things.

-Other possibilities: Clint Eastwood’s double force of Flags of our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima, which will probably split some votes but you shouldn’t count out. Stranger than Fiction scored a surprise nomination from the WGA but has been otherwise nonexistent.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Children of Men

The Departed

Little Children

Notes on a Scandal

Thank You For Smoking

Notes:

-Children of Men! Children of Men! That’s my heart clouding my judgment, but it still has a solid shot. It won the Scripter award but was snubbed from a WGA nomination. Not sure what to make of that. And it had a surge of late-in-the-game buzz, but was it too late? Let’s hope not.

-The movies taking its place on the WGA list? Borat and The Devil Wears Prada. If either of those squeeze in – which is a real possibility – I will be very angry. As much as they all love Borat, it’s really hard to nominate a movie for Adapted Screenplay…that barely even had a screenplay. A bunch of catchphrases and unscripted comments from stupid Americans do not a screenplay make. The Devil Wears Prada’s screenplay, meanwhile, was a perfectly acceptable and well-done mainstream adaption of a chick-lit book. But c’mon – would it really be garnering awards attention if it wasn’t a box office sleeper hit?

-Thank You For Smoking was an early-year indie hit with a smart script, but if the Academy has a short memory, there are a few other well-liked indie hits that could take the slot, most notably The Illusionist and The Last King of Scotland.

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There you go friends. Another year, another list of predictions. As is the case with last year, I'm not going to predict the other categories, because except for purists, no one really cares. I actually do care -- let's hope films like Children of Men and The Departed boost their nomination count with categories like Art Direction or Editing -- but not enough to predict them all. There's always some category like Documentary Short to screw over my percent-correct stat.

I have arrived!

My first real top-ten list has gone up at TheCinemaSource, along with fellow reviewers Steve Snart and Ben Lee.

You'll have to make the jump to see what made the cut, but lets just say the movies in there involve replicating magicians, wrestling terms in non-wrestling movies, and really cool Irish mob music.

Possibly show tunes, too. (I can't help it. Those show tunes always get me.) Just to balance it out I've included plenty of dark movies, including those about dystopian societies and noir-laced high schools.

Check it all out at the link above.

Dane Cook's Tourgasm hit stores on DVD the day after Christmas, which means, luckily, none of you received this ill-conceived documentary series as a present. But while the show isn't entertaining (and I like Dane Cook's stand-up, so there's no inherent bias here), my vastly cool review of it is. Check it out.

Hey everybody, another update while I'm still on winter break. Just because I work tirelessly in between getting up at noon and occasionally going to my town's Village Tavern, I hammered out a spotlight for TheCinemaSource on Alpha Dog's Shawn Hatosy. Cool for two reasons:

1. While the previews for the movie look vaguely like a bunch of pretty boys (Justin Timberlake included) trying to pretend they can act, don't be fooled so quickly. It got great reviews out of Sundance, where it was their official Closing Night Selection, it's based on an intriguing true story, and it boasts supporting actors with names like Bruce Willis. I haven't seen it yet, though, so the jury's still out.

2. Shawn Hatosy played the reformed jock Stan in The Faculty. How cool is that? (Anyone disputing that movie's greatness is in denial.)

If you're interested, there's also other spotlights (though not by me) up from most of the principles as well as director Nick Cassavetes (who oddly enough is the same guy who made The Notebook, which is a very different film).

Update: the end of the spotlight was previously cut off thanks to a typo of mine that screwed up the html (fascinating, I know) so it's a few paragraphs longer now.

Hey kids, here are two reviews I promised a while back. I actually had them written a few weeks ago but what with the holidays and the new year and everything, they haven't gone up until recently.

First up is the review of that 4-disc Narnia monstrosity, which hits and misses...

And the second review, as a nice, light, popcorn-y chaser, is Spike Lee's four-hour Katrina "requiem", When the Levees Broke.

Enjoy. By the way, I'm heading back to New York City for my final semester at NYU (cue the wetting of the pants) on Sunday the 14th. Following that you'll probably see more frequent updates since I'll actually be in the land of the living again.

Well, I've unceremoniously stopped writing Oscar columns of late, so I figure it's about time to jump back into the fold. Much has happened...the Producers Guild and more importantly the Screen Actors Guild have unveiled their nominations, as well as the ever popular Oscars-Lite, a.k.a. the Golden Globes. Instead of focusing on one particular category, this time I'm just going to give an overall look at how things are shaping up.

-The Screen Actors Guild is one of the best barometers of the four acting races, with an average of about 4 out of 5 of each category's nominations lining up to the Academy counterparts. This year they gave Little Miss Sunshine and Babel a boost while putting a dent in The Departed. The first two films have been gaining steam ever since the Globes announced their nominees. However, the Globes also picked Jack Nicholson and Mark Wahlberg for supporting, neither of which were honored by the SAG - Departed got nominated for Ensemble and DiCaprio in supporting. For the Academy, he'll still be running lead - he was shuttled into supporting because the SAG won't let you get nominated in the same category, and he was nominated in lead for Blood Diamond. The good news for Departed fans (me) is that DiCaprio crowded the category and probably shoved Nicholson or Wahlberg out. But will those two split votes and walk away from the Oscars un-nominated? And why isn't anyone recognizing the equal brilliance of Matt Damon's performance?

-The Good Shepherd and The Good German are officially gone from all the main races. They've gotten no love from...anyone. The Globes, the SAGs, the Producers, the critics groups, no one. So I'll throw in my two cents: they're both solid, in the B range, but noticably imperfect.

-Some off-key nominations to look out for: Sacha Baron Cohen for Borat. Like Johnny Depp for the first Pirates, it's the comedic performance of the year, and even moreso than that film, critics are getting continually aroused from that movie. I think he's in. Also: United 93 for Best Picture? Many critics groups loved it (including the New York Society of Film Critics) but there's a big distinction: critics are obligated to see it. The Academy members, well they're obligated, but it's no secret that most of them don't see even close to all of the films that are being considered for nominations. And most people just plain don't want to see it, and won't. I think it's out. Also: Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson. Critics adored him and he just got a big boost by way of a SAG nomination. The problem: no one on earth saw the movie. If he gets in, fans of the indie will rejoice. I haven't seen it, but it looks good. Too close to call at this point. And finally: DiCaprio for Blood Diamond. The movie flopped. My guess: the Academy won't want to try to nominate a badly received movie too hard, so they'll pass -- the SAG votes were due earlier, and many probably voted before the movie's fate was sealed.

-Children of Men? It's gotten great reviews and did dynamite business in limited release. Plus, the movie just plain looks freakin' cool. It wasn't recognized in nearly enough prereqs, although the Austin Film Critics and Online Film Critics associations showed their love. It's been gaining some traction quickly -- but is it too little, too late? My guess is it'll do solidly in some categories like Editing, it has a decent shot at Adapted Screenplay, and it's a dark horse for Director (Alfonso Cuaron).

-Some preliminary Best Picture predictions. Right now we're looking at Dreamgirls (doing great B.O. which reaffirms its lock status), Letters from Iwo Jima (the now-common late-in-the-game Clint Eastwood drama), Babel (which has gotten the required amount of preliminary love, especially sweepage from the SAG and Globes, even though the B.O. is puny), The Departed (got almost everyone on its side: prelims, critics, high-profile cast and director, and great box office) and The Queen (the whole package plus surprisingly good box office). That makes five. But what about Little Miss Sunshine? In a weird way, it's kind of like this year's Sideways. And it's gaining momentum. Who could it knock out? The Queen -- if they decide that nominating Helen Mirren is enough. Or Babel -- if the B.O. works against it...which it hasn't so far. And are we overestimating Letters from Iwo Jima? No. Probably not.