Well, the Oscars are tomorrow, so here’s my annual big preview of the ceremony, and more directly, my official predictions for every category. There’s no point in shooting the breeze – let’s get down to business.

BEST PICTURE
The Departed

This year is really rather thrilling because the Best Picture race itself is the most wide-open in years. The consensus seems to be at this point that it’s a three-way race between Babel, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine (although even that isn’t certain – pro Oscar prognosticator Kris Tapley over at In Contention is predicting Letters from Iwo Jima). Babel has the most nominations of any movie with seven, making it a strong bet, but the box office is still slacking – the movie’s just plain not in the public consciousness whatsoever (which may not matter to the Academy). That’s the opposite of crowd-pleaser Little Miss Sunshine, which many people inside and out of the Academy want to award. But do more people just view it as a simple little movie that’s not Best Picture material?

That leaves The Departed. On the plus side, it’s a critical success (although with the Oscars around the corner, naysayers are coming out in full force as well), and it’s a bono fide box office success – the biggest for Scorsese ever. On the downside, many people view it as a popcorn flick, it only captured one acting nomination (for Mark Wahlberg), people may be turned off by the violence, and then there’s that strange streak of Martin Scorsese snubbing that the Academy is well known for. I really wouldn’t be that surprised if Letters from Iwo Jima went all dark-horse on us and took the top prizes. Babel, which many people see as the frontrunner, would come as even less of a surpise.

So why am I choosing The Departed? It’s all about the package. If Babel wins the big award, what other awards does it have to round it out? Probably Editing and that’s it – although if it wins Original Screenplay, its chances for Picture shoot up through the roof. Little Miss Sunshine is in a better position, with decent shots at both Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor – but the lack of a Director nomination is very telling. The Departed, meanwhile, is at this point fairly strongly locked on Director and Adapted Screenplay (again, as long as Letters doesn’t spoil). That makes a much better package; therefore I think it will eek out the win.

DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Even if Babel or Little Miss Sunshine takes home the top prize, it looks like it’s finally Martin Scorsese’s year. Like Ang Lee last year, he’s the frontrunner whether or not his film ends up winning the big prize. Ironically, unlike in years past, Scorsese did no Oscar campaigning this year. It’s looking like it paid off.

ACTOR
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Whitaker has been the frontrunner forever and it’s highly unlikely to change now. The only two things going against him are sympathy votes for eight-time nominee Peter O’Toole, and some really bad acceptance speeches at previous awards shows like the Golden Globes. Hopefully tomorrow night he won’t get up to the podium, scratch his head, grin nervously, and speak in a rambling whisper.

ACTRESS
Helen Mirren, The Queen

She’s even more of a lock than Whitaker and Scorsese. I cannot think of any conceivable way she wouldn’t win.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

In recent weeks, a lot of people have jumped ship and are now predicting Little Miss Sunshine’s Alan Arkin for the win. But even though Norbit is obnoxiously playing at a theater near you, I still think Murphy will win the Oscar. He’s become the “less popular frontrunner”; a similar thing happened a few years ago when many people hopped on the Bill Murray bandwagon, but Sean Penn still walked away the winner.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

No one else is strong enough to overtake her. I’ve heard whispers about Adriana Bazzara from Babel, but she’ll most likely still split with costar Rinko Kikuchi.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Peter Morgan, The Queen

This is my big gamble. Many people still consider this category an open race, but conventional wisdom says that Little Miss Sunshine will take it. A surge of support for Pan’s Labyrinth could make that the surprise winner, while Babel could take it on its way to Best Picture.

So why The Queen? Simply put, a hunch. Frankly most of me screams that I’m wrong and that I should go with Sunshine. But you can’t follow the consensus all the time, right? That’s boring. The Queen was the surprise winner at the Golden Globes, and perhaps the stuffy Academy will appreciate an upper-class British story rather than a popular crowd-pleaser – which is exactly what happened when Gosford Park won over Memento.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
William Monahan, The Departed

The clear frontrunner. Aside from the fact that Monahan’s script is great, there doesn’t seem to be a nominee that could garner more votes. Despite Borat’s popularity, I still refuse to believe they would give this award to a movie that was vastly unscripted. Children of Men is more a directorial achievement over a writing one, and the Academy rarely awards a movie with too many credited writers (Men has five). Meanwhile, Little Children and Notes on a Scandal will most likely split the small-movie vote, although Children has its ardent supporters. Look for Departed to win.

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Pan's Labyrinth

The only movie giving this one a run for its money is The Lives of Others, which has got some great notices. Still, the Academy liked Pan’s Labyrinth enough to nominate it six times, and its displayed surprisingly strong box office power. Unless too many people are put off by the dark-fairy-tale nature of the story, it will win.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Cars

Pixar is usually a good decision. Happy Feet was more recent, but Cars made more money; for every person who thought it was sub-par (like me), there were plenty of people shouting “Pixar’s done it again!”

DOCUMENTARY
An Inconvenient Truth

Deliver Us from Evil is the haunting, well-reviewed alternate, but c’mon. There is no way an institution that prides itself on being liberal will not finally let Al Gore win at something.

ART DIRECTION
Pan's Labyrinth

They could go with Pirates 2 or Dreamgirls, but they probably won’t.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Children of Men

Have you seen those tracking shots? The movie looks incredible, and it has a few other nominations confirming its popularity. Pan’s Labyrinth is the other possibility.

FILM EDITING
Babel

Convention wisdom usually means the Academy will think the movie with intertwined stories automatically has the best editing. This is United 93’s best shot at an award, but they’ll probably go with a Best Picture nominee.

ORIGINAL SCORE
The Queen

Frankly, I have no idea on this one. I’m taking Entertainment Weekly’s advice.

ORIGINAL SONG
"Listen," Dreamgirls

Ditto. It’s got to be something from Dreamgirls, right? Or will the three nominations split?

VISUAL EFFECTS
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Despite the bad reviews, it was the special effects extravaganza of the year. Oh yeah, and it made pretty much double the money of the next-highest-grossing movie last year.

SOUND EDITING
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

They do like war movies in this category, but Eastwood’s two movies will probably split the vote. Give it to the #1 movie of the year. It’s not going to be Apocalytpo, I can tell you that much.

SOUND MIXING
Dreamgirls

The main sound category should go to the musical, right? I’m assuming that’s what most Academy members will think, too.

COSTUME DESIGN
Marie Antoinette

This is a surprisingly tough category, because you don't know which way the Academy will swing: modern with The Devil Wears Prada, exotic with Curse of the Golden Flower, British with The Queen, or musical with Dreamgirls. Once again, I’m hedging my bets and going with Entertainment Weekly’s bet that they’ll go for the old period piece.

MAKEUP
Pan's Labyrinth

Apocalypto and Click are its competitors.

ANIMATED SHORT
The Little Matchgirl
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Two Hands
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)

You think I have any idea about those three? Those predictions seem to be general consensus, so why not?


That’s it. That’s all the categories. But who knows? Chances are I’m completely underestimating Little Miss Sunshine, right? Well, whether I am or not, I don’t really mind. It’s nice to not have best Picture a foregone conclusion for once. That’s why you should tune in this year – plus all that glitz, glamour, stars, and fashion stuff. Everybody knows the host is Ellen DeGeneres, but here’s a tentative list of presenters courtesy of Oscarwatch.com:

Jack Nicholson
Meryl Streep
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Leonardo DiCaprio
Robert Downey, Jr.
Gael Garcia Bernal
Emily Blunt
Catherine Deneuve
Al Gore
James McAvoy
Jerry Seinfeld
Greg Kinnear
Helen Mirren
Clive Owen
Ken Watanabe
Naomi Watts
John Travolta
Jodie Foster
Queen Latifah
Gwyneth Paltrow
Jennifer Lopez
Diane Keaton
Jessica Biel
Abigail Breslin
Jaden Smith
Tom Cruise
Kirsten Dunst
Kate Winslet
Ben Affleck
Cate Blanchett
Steve Carell
Penelope Cruz
Tom Hanks
Rachel Weisz
Daniel Craig
Nicole Kidman
Reese Witherspoon
Will Ferrell
George Clooney
Cameron Diaz
Eva Green
Hugh Jackman

Well, this about wraps it up for me. You can check out a chart full of a lot of people’s predictions, including mine, on Oscarwatch’s prediction round-up here. And you can check out our Oscar article at TheCinemaSource here.

Sunday night, February 25th, 2007. 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific. ABC. Be there.