Well, I've unceremoniously stopped writing Oscar columns of late, so I figure it's about time to jump back into the fold. Much has happened...the Producers Guild and more importantly the Screen Actors Guild have unveiled their nominations, as well as the ever popular Oscars-Lite, a.k.a. the Golden Globes. Instead of focusing on one particular category, this time I'm just going to give an overall look at how things are shaping up.

-The Screen Actors Guild is one of the best barometers of the four acting races, with an average of about 4 out of 5 of each category's nominations lining up to the Academy counterparts. This year they gave Little Miss Sunshine and Babel a boost while putting a dent in The Departed. The first two films have been gaining steam ever since the Globes announced their nominees. However, the Globes also picked Jack Nicholson and Mark Wahlberg for supporting, neither of which were honored by the SAG - Departed got nominated for Ensemble and DiCaprio in supporting. For the Academy, he'll still be running lead - he was shuttled into supporting because the SAG won't let you get nominated in the same category, and he was nominated in lead for Blood Diamond. The good news for Departed fans (me) is that DiCaprio crowded the category and probably shoved Nicholson or Wahlberg out. But will those two split votes and walk away from the Oscars un-nominated? And why isn't anyone recognizing the equal brilliance of Matt Damon's performance?

-The Good Shepherd and The Good German are officially gone from all the main races. They've gotten no love from...anyone. The Globes, the SAGs, the Producers, the critics groups, no one. So I'll throw in my two cents: they're both solid, in the B range, but noticably imperfect.

-Some off-key nominations to look out for: Sacha Baron Cohen for Borat. Like Johnny Depp for the first Pirates, it's the comedic performance of the year, and even moreso than that film, critics are getting continually aroused from that movie. I think he's in. Also: United 93 for Best Picture? Many critics groups loved it (including the New York Society of Film Critics) but there's a big distinction: critics are obligated to see it. The Academy members, well they're obligated, but it's no secret that most of them don't see even close to all of the films that are being considered for nominations. And most people just plain don't want to see it, and won't. I think it's out. Also: Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson. Critics adored him and he just got a big boost by way of a SAG nomination. The problem: no one on earth saw the movie. If he gets in, fans of the indie will rejoice. I haven't seen it, but it looks good. Too close to call at this point. And finally: DiCaprio for Blood Diamond. The movie flopped. My guess: the Academy won't want to try to nominate a badly received movie too hard, so they'll pass -- the SAG votes were due earlier, and many probably voted before the movie's fate was sealed.

-Children of Men? It's gotten great reviews and did dynamite business in limited release. Plus, the movie just plain looks freakin' cool. It wasn't recognized in nearly enough prereqs, although the Austin Film Critics and Online Film Critics associations showed their love. It's been gaining some traction quickly -- but is it too little, too late? My guess is it'll do solidly in some categories like Editing, it has a decent shot at Adapted Screenplay, and it's a dark horse for Director (Alfonso Cuaron).

-Some preliminary Best Picture predictions. Right now we're looking at Dreamgirls (doing great B.O. which reaffirms its lock status), Letters from Iwo Jima (the now-common late-in-the-game Clint Eastwood drama), Babel (which has gotten the required amount of preliminary love, especially sweepage from the SAG and Globes, even though the B.O. is puny), The Departed (got almost everyone on its side: prelims, critics, high-profile cast and director, and great box office) and The Queen (the whole package plus surprisingly good box office). That makes five. But what about Little Miss Sunshine? In a weird way, it's kind of like this year's Sideways. And it's gaining momentum. Who could it knock out? The Queen -- if they decide that nominating Helen Mirren is enough. Or Babel -- if the B.O. works against it...which it hasn't so far. And are we overestimating Letters from Iwo Jima? No. Probably not.