I've decided to take a closer look at each big category race, so I figured I'd start with what is normally the most interesting: Best Actor in a Leading Role. (The sad but true state of affairs is that there are always way more buzz-worthy Lead Actor roles than there are Lead Actress roles, at least in this stage of the game.) So here are some of the top contenders we've been looking at, and my two cents. In NO ORDER WHATSOEVER:

1. Jack Nicholson, The Departed

The idea is that Nicholson could get shoved into this race instead of Supporting Actor if the movie proves popular enough, and so far it's still going very strong at the box office. But I just have doubts about him, because (a) the first thing the Departed naysayers do is rag on Nicolson's scenery-chewing performance, and (b) the race is only going to get more crowded. My guess is that they'll shuttle him into the Supporting Actor race with time to spare, where he'll fare much better.

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed

The Academy has proven that they appreciate DiCaprio before after nominating him for The Aviator and What's Eating Gilbert Grape. As it stands now, with Departed doing so well, and he's the central character, so I think he has a strong shot. There's always a chance that his upcoming movie Blood Diamond will split his votes, but his faux-African accent in that film is likely to get most of the attention, not his performance.

3. Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

He's a lock. We're almost into November, so it's late enough in the year that I feel comfortable saying that. A respected actor who hasn't gotten enough love in the past, this is going to be one of those instances they have every year, of a film not getting any nominations except Best Actor (think Michael Caine in The Quiet American).

4. Ryan Phillippe, Flags of our Fathers

Not happening. A lot of people are still considering this, but if you look at the history, it's not working. It's extraordinarily hard for actors in ensemble war movies to get nominations, and the one who has the biggest chance is Adam Beach for Supporting Actor. It's also extraordinarily hard to get a nomination when the director is much more famous than the star (think of Eric Bana's excellent but unnominated work in Munich.) Phillippe has gotten some nice notices for this, and the film will help his career in the future, so I wish him the best.

5. Jamie Foxx, Dreamgirls

This is the unreleased movie that has all the buzz right now, but it remains to be seen whether it will bring in the kind of Chicago-style acting nominations -- and even that movie left Richard Gere snubbed for Best Actor. He has a real shot, but it's way too early to know for sure.

6. Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

A brilliantly acclaimed performance, but the film was so small, the critics really need to rally around it in their own Oscar urgings to earn Gosling a nomination. He's been an indie-It-boy for a while (The Believer, The Notebook) but he has yet to enter mainstream consciousness; a nomination just might do it, but he's got a rough road ahead of him.

7. Derek Luke, Catch a Fire

I can see this movie really bombing with audiences unless it starts getting a lot of buzz fast. Luke is a capable actor, but the movie actually needs to go somewhere for him to have a shot.

8. Matt Damon, The Departed

At this point in the game, most of the buzz seems to be focused around DiCaprio and Nicholson. Personally, I think Damon at least equals them both, but there's that darn personal bias again. If the film sweeps a lot of categories, it could pull Damon in as well, especially if Nicholson moves to Supporting.

9. Will Ferrell, Stranger Than Fiction

As soon as the movie opens, it will get solid reviews, and he will get solid reviews, but his chances will disappear. I guarantee you. It's just not that type of movie; its best shot is Screenplay, and even that will need a ridiculous amount of raves.

10. Nicholas Cage, World Trade Center

Yes, the 9/11 movies do have the X-factor of being 9/11 movies (i.e., no track record to look at). As for right now, the buzz has disappeared, but it wouldn't shock me if he sneaked in.

11. Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness

I think he has a better shot than a lot of people have been giving him credit for -- he can turn a simple romantic comedy like Hitch into a 175 million blockbuster, so people will be forced to give this a good hard look. Still, we don't know whether it's actually good yet or not, so we'll have to find out that part first.

12. George Clooney, The Good German, and 13. Matt Damon, The Good Shepherd

The two "Good" movies are both wait-and-sees. The third, A Good Year with Russell Crowe, doesn't have a chance. Maybe it should've been named The Good Year.

14. Peter O'Toole, Venus

He's been getting advance raves, so it looks like this might play out similar to Forest Whitaker: one big nomination for an otherwise ignored movie. But who knows? The Academy takes to movies like this sometimes, so it could be the sleeper contender for much more than O'Toole.

Other guys I don't think will cut it at this point but are still worth mentioning: Toby Jones for Infamous (terrible box office), Aaron Eckhart for Thank You For Smoking (appeared too early in the year), Patrick Wilson for Little Children (way less buzz than there should be), Richard Griffiths for The History Boys (wildcard), Guy Pearce for Factory Girl (movie is being ignored), Ed Harris for Copying Beethoven (bad reviews).

(These Oscar columns are published weekly from early Fall through the Oscar ceremony at the end of February.)