So we're into October, the Toronto Film Festival is over and done with, and it's about time I weigh in on this year's Oscar season. Where to start? It's shaping up to be a solid year, but as always, there's a lot of ifs, ands, and buts on every movie out there. Nothing's a sure thing, and in the words of William Goldman (and which is also the mantra of Oscarwatch.com), "nobody knows anything".

But I can try.

So, for my first column, in the interest of getting everybody up to date and on the same page, here's a rough list of every single movie being widely considered for major Oscar contention (i.e. more than just one random nomination). Yeah -- I know it's ambitious. That's why I'm the best. Now, when I say "every single movie", what I really mean is "every single movie at the moment". Expect surprises to pop up in future weeks. And I didn't include stuff that's already turned out to be a stinker (I'm talking to you, All the King's Men.) For now, though, here's what I like to call "The List".



Babel

Pros: Amores Perros director Alejandro González Iñárritu got Benicio Del Toro and Naomi Watts Oscar nominations that last time he directed, with 21 Grams. Now he's got Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, and Gael Garcia Bernal in an examination of inter-cultural language barriers and the tragedy and violence that can result. That might sound a little highbrow written down, but audiences at Cannes loved it; they handed Iñárritu the Best Director award, and it was nominated for the Golden Palm.

Cons: Iñárritu is only known in pretentious-film-world circles; 21 Grams was ridiculously confusing, and the trailer for this one doesn't seem to suggest he's gotten much more coherent; Pitt will no doubt help the box office, but what kind of a mass-audience reception will this get?

Blood Diamond

Pros: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Connelly, and Djimon Honsou. All Oscar-nominated actors, and the South African themes shout "culturally important". Also from Ed Zwick, who directed The Last Samurai.

Cons: Did I mention that DiCaprio sports an African accent in this one, too? (He got 20 million, so he's the one laughing his way to the bank.) Also, the plot sounds a little too standard-thriller-ish - a hunt for a priceless diamond - for serious Oscar consideration.



Bobby

Pros: A ridiculously huge cast, a period piece set in the '60s, a political plot about a much-beloved figure.

Cons: Props to Emilio Estevez for writing/directing this, but where has he even been since D3: The Mighty Ducks? It's also gotten some rather brutal reviews, with an Entertainment Weekly reviewer calling it a "gooey, overscored, treacle-streaked religiosity for depressed democrats". Ew, indeed.

Breaking and Entering

Pros: Directed by Anthony Minghella (The English Patient, Cold Mountain). Starring Jude Law, Juliette Binoche, Robin Wright-Penn, and The Departed's Vera Farmiga. Need I continue?

Cons: Some good buzz for Binoche, but Toronto Film Festival audiences didn't rave enough for it to break out of the gate. The buzz on this one is, as of right now, very quiet, but surely not for long...

Catch a Fire

Pros: A political (read: Oscar-baiting) thriller about South Africa in the1980's starring Oscar winner Tim Robbins (and a supposed breakout performance from Derek Luke). The director of The Quiet American and Rabbit-Proof Fence.

Cons: I thought Antwone Fisher was supposed to be Derek Luke's breakout performance. Since then he's taken supporting parts in Friday Night Lights and Glory Road. Director Phillip Noyce has made well-received films, but none of them have translated into heavy Oscar nominations.

Children of Men

Pros: Clive Owen, Julianne Moore, Michael Caine, and Chiwetel Ejiofor in a cool-sounding story about a future world that's about to end because all women have become infertile (from Y Tu Mama Tambien director Alfonso Cuaron).

Cons: Cool-sounding stories don't necessarily translate into Oscar success (as much as I want this one to). Popcorn flick or inhabitant of critics' top-ten lists? We'll have to wait until it's released to know for sure.

Copying Beethoven

Pros: Ed Harris plays the one, the only Ludwig van Beethoven. What else do you need?

Cons: Not a great reception at Toronto. Gary Oldman played Beethoven in Immortal Beloved, which, to my knowledge, got nominated for absolutely nothing.

The Departed

Pros: It's not just the living legend of a director. Or the massively Oscar-baiting cast. Or the brilliant script, rave reviews and great box office. There's also the little fact that it's an amazingly good movie.

Cons: I just brought my own opinion into it, and that's a no-no: the movie you want to win is rarely the movie that wins. Also, many are saying that the crime-thriller nature of the movie might be too popcorny for the big prizes.

The Devil Wears Prada

Pros: It was the surprise hit of the summer; it got mostly good reviews; it's headlined by Ms. Been-Nominated-Eighteen-Million-Times.

Cons: It's a fluff movie. Meryl Streep has a very decent shot, but any chances it has ends there.



Dreamgirls

Pros: Of Oscar hopefuls, this one's in the top tier. It's a musical, based on a stage show, written and directed by Chicago screenwriter Bill Condon (who also wrote/directed and Gods and Monsters and Kinsey). It stars Jamie Foxx, Beyonce Knowles, and Eddie Murphy, that last of whom is getting a lot of buzz for a supporting actor nomination. Extended previews of it shown at festivals have gotten raves. And as far as movie musicals go for Oscar hopes, this one looks a lot more like Chicago than Rent.

Cons: Despite the presence of Foxx and Murphy, what kind of mass male appeal does this have? Box office could kill it, and the fact that no one's yet seen the entire thing may mean people are jumping the gun.

Flags of our Fathers

Pros: Clint Eastwood, Clint Eastwood, Clint Eastwood. He's Oscar's golden boy, and he's directing this World War II movie about the men on the Pacific front who raised the flag in the famous photo. Solid box office potential, some well-regarded young stars (Ryan Phillippe, Adam Beach, Jesse Bradford), and a buzzworthy innovation -- a few months later Eastwood will release another film that tells the same story from the Japanese point of view -- point to a major Oscar contender.

Cons: No big stars means box office potential is a big question mark. Mostly, though, this will survive or fail on its reviews. Early reviews have been good, but there have been a few grousers, notably David Poland and Roger Friedman.

For Your Consideration

Pros: Another mockumentary comedy from Christopher Guest, this one about -- whaddaya know -- a weird indie movie gaining Oscar buzz.

Cons: Guest's movies (A Mighty Wind, Best in Show, Waiting for Guffman) usually never gain notice for anything except a potential screenplay nomination. Still, the subject matter definitely means this one will be mentioned quite a bit.

The Fountain

Pros: Darren Aronofsky (Requiem for a Dream) directed this time-spanning love story starring Hugh Jackman and Rachel Weisz. Weisz is fresh off her Oscar for The Constant Gardener, and Aronofsky directed Ellen Burstyn to a nomination in Requiem.

Cons: The bizarro-sci-fi storyline will probably turn Oscar off. It looks visually stunning, so look for some technical nominations, but as I write this, it's score on Rotten Tomatoes in 50%, with 5 positive reviews and 5 negative reviews listed. It looks like this will be something that professional critics will ignore but a loyal audience will turn into a cult flick.

Fur

Pros: Stars well-regarded folk like Nicole Kidman and Robert Downey, Jr. and is directed by Steven Shainberg, who made the critically-acclaimed (but otherwise ignored) Secretary. It's about photographer Diane Arbus, and biopics are always Oscar bait, even though this one is largely fictional.

Cons: There's barely any buzz surrounding this, so it's critical reception will help. For now, though, we'll have to wait and see.

The Good German

Pros: It's got a sweet poster, it's a period piece, and the people involved -- Steven Soderbergh, George Clooney, Cate Blanchett, and Tobey Maguire -- make it automatically worthy of Oscar contention.

Cons: Actually, none. We'll have to wait for the reviews to see whether it amounts to the sum of its parts.



The Good Shepherd

Pros: The second of three "Good" movies this season, this one's about the creation of the CIA and boasts Robert De Niro as the director. The cast of Matt Damon and Angelina Jolie doesn't hurt, either.

Cons: From the trailer, it looks like Jolie is stuck with a lame "complaining wife" role. The last movie De Niro directed was A Bronx Tale, which didn't turn any Academy eyebrows.

A Good Year

Pros: Russell Crowe, Albert Finney, Freddie Highmore, and director Ridley Scott.

Cons: It's a fluff piece that acts as a transparent way for Crowe to try to improve his image. The Academy loves Crowe, but I doubt they'll be fooled.

Goya's Ghosts

Pros: It's directed by Amadeus's Milos Forman, and it's another period piece, this one about painter Francisco Goya. It's gotten a high-pedigree cast featuring Stellan Skarsgård and Natalie Portman.

Cons: Mmm...Natalie Portman. What? Oh. It's a small film that's having trouble getting distribution, and I can't find any early reviews, so we'll have to take a Wait & See approach.



Half Nelson

Pros: Critics raved about this portrait of a drug-addict high school teacher in the inner city (Ryan Gosling) who develops a friendship with a student, played by newcomer Shareeka Epps.

Cons: It has the curse of being a small indie movie: people might forget. If a few critics rally around it near the end of the year, though, it could have decent shots for Gosling, Epps, and the screenplay.

The History Boys

Pros: The British movie version of the play that recently won the Tony for Best Play.

Cons: No stars, little buzz, from the director of Center Stage and The Object of My Affection.

Hollywoodland

Pros: Some above-average reviews and raves for Ben Affleck's performance of the late George Reeves.

Cons: Abysmal box office returns have pretty much buried it...for everything except Affleck's chances. He's actually gotten a lot of recognition, including the Best Actor award at the Venice Film Festival. A comeback, indeed.

The Last King of Scotland

Pros: Forest Whitaker has gotten rave reviews for his portrayal of Idi Amin, the genocidal dictator of Uganda in the 1970s, and looks like a lock for Best Actor.

Cons: Box office will be questionable; prospects for awards outside of Actor seem shaky.

Little Children

Pros: Todd Field, director of In the Bedroom, brings us another ordinary-people drama starring Patrick Wilson (Hard Candy, Angels in America), Jennifer Connelly, and Kate Winslet. So far reviews have been excellent.

Cons: In the Bedroom was successful because it was the critical hit of the year. Now Field is a known quantity and the marketplace is crowded between now and December.

Little Miss Sunshine

Pros: Already the Little Independent Movie That Could. Box office is above fifty million. A huge crowd-pleaser.

Cons: It's a comedy. Nothing more than a screenplay nomination seems likely.

Marie Antoinette

Pros: Sofia Coppola scored big with Lost in Translation. And she gets points this time for a period piece.

Cons: The movie got booed at Cannes (whether or not it was only the French booing, it's still not exactly good press). The trailers look emo-tastic. The movie doesn't even include the beheading.

Margaret

Pros: A reportedly great script from Kenneth Lonergan, who wrote and directed You Can Count On Me, which introduced us to Laura Linney and Mark Ruffalo. With Ruffalo, Anna Paquin, Matthew Broderick, and Matt Damon in the cast, it has an usually high pedigree for an independent drama.

Cons: Another too-soon-to-tell. Critics will make or break it.

Miss Potter

Pros: An Oscar-friendly biopic, this one of author Beatrix Potter. Stars Renee Zellweger in the title role, with Ewan McGregor and Emily Watson among the supporters.

Cons: Another Renee-Zellweger-pretending-to-be-a-British-woman movie?



The Nativity Story

Pros: Stars Keisha Castle-Hughes, the young teenager who was nominated for Best Actress for Whale Rider, as none other than Mary, mother of Jesus. Thirteen director Catherine Hardwicke and Oscar nominee Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog) add to the pedigree.

Cons: Hollywood wasn't exactly supportive of that last big Christian movie, the little indie known as The Passion of the Christ.

Notes on a Scandal

Pros: Frankly, I'm sick of looking things up. From what I recall we're looking at another Judi Dench nomination.

Cons: Since when have movies that have gotten Judi Dench nominated gotten nominated for anything else?

The Notorious Betty Page

Pros: Another biopic...this one of pin-up girl Betty Page. Gretchen Mol is said to give a great title performance.

Cons: It's already out on DVD after barely making a dime. Reviews were good for Mol but not always for the film as a whole.

The Prestige

Pros: It's got director Christopher Nolan (Memento, Batman Begins), Scarlett Johannson, Michael Caine, and a period-piece setting. Hugh Jackman and Christian Bale star as dueling magicians.

Cons: Unless the reviews are really good, this will probably play out like a popcorn flick (and Nolan and Bale's fun diversion before returning to Batman with The Dark Knight.

The Pursuit of Happyness

Pros: It's a drama based on true events with a central performance from Will Smith as a poor father looking for a little dignity.

Cons: It looks like its prospects are limited to Smith's performance, although its conceivable critics could take to the little-guy-overcoming-the-odds story. But what's with the distracting title?

The Queen

Pros: This one's recently released and is riding high on a truckload of buzz, mostly thanks to Helen Mirren's performance. It's also a nice change of pace from the historical dramas: this one is about Queen Elizabeth II, and chronicles the events after the death of Princess Di.

Cons: That buzz it's riding on needs to last through the year if it wants to be nominated for anything besides Mirren's performance.

Running with Scissors

Pros: Star-studded and based on a beloved book. Annette Bening is gaining some good buzz for her performance.

Cons: Might be deemed too "quirky" for the Oscars. Plus, it remings me a bit of The Chumscrubber and Thumbsucker, both of which came and went like the wind.

United 93

Pros: Got almost universally rave reviews. Also topical, to say the least.

Cons: Audiences preferred to shy away from it, and it made less than 35 million. Still, it's got the X-factor of being a 9/11 film, so who knows.

Venus

Pros: Peter O'Toole is said to be wonderful.

Cons: I haven't heard a single thing about it except for the above statement.



Volver

Pros: The newest film from prolific Spanish director Pedro Almodovar, who we should never count out: his movie Talk to Her wasn't expected to get nominated for anything, and walked away with a win for Original Screenplay. This one got a great response at Cannes and stars Penelope Cruz.

Cons: Almodovar's last movie, Bad Education, didn't get the same love from the Academy that Talk to Her did. Penelope Cruz has a massively hit-or-miss career.

World Trade Center

Pros: Did twice the box office of United 93, with almost equally impressive reviews.

Cons: The Academy has been kind to Oliver Stone in the past, so will they take to this new patriotic non-conspiracy-theorist user-friendly version of him? And there's the 9/11 movie X-factor, which could help or hurt it.

Anybody still reading? If you are, you're in luck. I'm done. That's The List. Until next time...

(These Oscar columns are published weekly from early Fall through the Oscar ceremony at the end of February.)